An interesting series of reports have shone light on China’s ‘quiet’ but revolutionary preparations for conflict with the US. China has mastered the art of the silent observer. Legions of commentators spent years criticizing China for not being more active and involved in the global geopolitical theaters, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly when tilting those conflicts in its own favor would have greatly benefited China.
But now portions of China’s strategy are finally coming to light, and revealing the country’s uniquely furtive approach to maintaining a semblance of balance while in actuality making unprecedented hidden preparations for the worst case scenarios.
Russian analysis: China has accelerated construction of a comprehensive national-resilience system intended to withstand sanctions, blockade, supply-chain collapse, natural disasters and potentially major war.
These measures are not noticeable but are an important component of the general trend towards total securitization of all aspects of Chinese policy (even, e.g., culture and ecology) per Xi Jinping’s Holistic Security Concept.
The authors note that this policy flies in the face of China’s “outward” facade of optimism for humanity, showing that at their core, Chinese leadership are pragmatic adherents of realpolitik:
The measures’ extreme cost indicates that, although the Chinese leadership advances optimistic conceptions like the Community of Common Destiny for Mankind and a “universally beneficial, inclusive economic globalization,” the leadership actually adheres to an extremely bleak outlook for the world in the 21st century.
The Russian authors believe the measures indicate China is internally preparing for worst-case scenario outcomes:
It is preparing—at the very least—for a severe military and political crisis, including the disruption of all normal economic ties and a slide to the brink of war. At worst, it is preparing for even more nightmarish scenarios.
In effect, what is happening is that China is quietly watching and learning from the mistakes of all its counterparts, particularly Russia and Iran, and is restructuring its own internal policies and protective apparatuses toward avoiding the exact kind of traps that Russia had fallen into in Ukraine.
What “trap”, precisely, do we mean? One word suffices—it is the trap of vulnerability.
China appears to be keenly reassembling its infrastructure in order to be as least exposed as possible to any of the multifarious Western hybrid-war vectors in existence, from kinetic to economic.
How is China going about this?
By relocating strategic industries farther inland to the “rear”, to avoid precisely the type of things being seen in Russia now; strengthening its national energy grid, again to avoid the weaknesses seen both in the Russian and Iranian theaters; and much more.
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