Paul Scharre, Executive Director at the Center for a New American Security, discusses this new age of military technology and his Foreign Affairs piece, “Losing the War of the Future: How New Technologies Threaten America’s Military Advantage.”
The New Age of Drone and Robot Warfare: Who’s Winning on Today’s Battlefields
A recent piece on Dedicated Issues highlighted how a new age of missiles and drones is reshaping battlefields around the world. That observation holds up. Cheap drones, ground robots, and growing doses of artificial intelligence are changing how wars are fought more than almost any technology since the tank or the airplane.
What used to require expensive jets, tanks, and large groups of soldiers can now be done with small machines that cost a few thousand dollars or less. These systems can watch, strike, deliver supplies, and even hold ground. The countries using them most effectively right now are rewriting the rules in real time.
Key advances include fiber-optic drones that run a thin cable instead of a radio signal, making them hard to jam. These now make up a large share of strike drones. Other systems use cameras and onboard computers to navigate without GPS when electronic warfare is heavy. Ukraine has also fielded interceptor drones that shoot down Russian attack drones, including launches from naval drones.
Ground robots handle logistics (up to 80 percent of frontline supply runs in some areas), carry weapons, clear mines, and support attacks. Ukraine contracted 15,000 ground robotic systems in 2025 and planned 25,000 more in the first half of 2026. This is not science fiction—it is daily reality on an 800-mile front.
Russia started the war with fewer advanced drones but adapted quickly. It floods the skies with cheap Shahed-style drones and Lancet loitering munitions. Many Lancets now carry AI modules that process camera images on the drone itself, pick targets from preset categories, and coordinate with other drones.
Russia has also improved electronic warfare and is pushing toward swarm tactics. While Ukrainian forces often hold the edge in creativity and speed of upgrades, Russia’s sheer volume of drones creates constant pressure and forces Ukraine to spend resources on defense.
Israel: Precision and AI Targeting
Israel has long experience with drones and has pushed artificial intelligence deeper into the targeting process. Systems such as Lavender (for identifying potential human targets) and Gospel (for buildings and infrastructure) help generate and prioritize strike lists quickly. These tools feed information to human operators who make final decisions.
In Gaza operations, this approach allowed rapid identification of large numbers of targets. Israel also operates advanced unmanned aircraft for surveillance and strikes, often in dense urban settings. The combination of high-quality sensors, AI filtering, and experienced operators makes Israeli drone use highly effective in asymmetric fights, even if it raises ongoing debates about accuracy and civilian harm.
China: Preparing for High-End Swarm Warfare
China has not fought a major recent war with these systems, but it is investing heavily and showing off the results. In 2026, Chinese media demonstrated the Atlas drone swarm system: truck-launched fixed-wing drones controlled in groups of nearly 100, with reconnaissance drones spotting targets and attack drones striking them. Tests have involved hundreds of drones under limited human control.
China is also developing large “mothership” drones that can release dozens of smaller attack drones, along with ground robots and naval unmanned vessels. The focus is on swarms that can overwhelm defenses through numbers and coordination. These systems appear aimed at potential high-intensity fights, such as around Taiwan. China is treating drone and robot warfare as a core future cap
The United States: Advanced Tech, Slower Scale
The United States has excellent sensors, software, and high-end unmanned systems. The Replicator initiative aimed to field thousands of affordable, attritable drones and robots by 2025. Progress has been slower than hoped—hundreds of systems rather than thousands in the early phases—though more are on contract and counter-drone efforts continue.
American systems are generally more sophisticated and better integrated with other forces. The gap shows up in mass production and rapid battlefield iteration. Ukraine’s daily drone numbers and yearly production goals far exceed current U.S. combat drone output. Lessons from Ukraine are pushing the U.S. military to move faster on cheap, expendable systems and tighter feedback loops between frontline users and manufacturers.ability.
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