A lot of escalation has ensued in the last 48 hours, starting when Thursday Tehran struck a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, after which by the end of Friday US CENTCOM confirmed a series of fresh attacks on Iranian missile and drone storage sites as well as coastal radar installations, reportedly on Sirik Island located near the Strait of Hormuz.
Referring to Thursday's attack on a vessel off Oman, the Pentagon called it a "powerful response to yesterday’s attack," in the Friday statement. By early Saturday, Iran had re-retaliated and launched a fresh drone attack on Bahrain. Additionally, another ship in the Strait of Hormuz separately came under attack Saturday.
The Associated Press points to the obvious potential US-Iran deal (MoU) unraveling: "The attacks across the Persian Gulf show the danger of the Iran war again spinning out of control, even after Iran and the U.S. reached an interim deal to try and agree on a final accord to end the conflict" - though neither side has as yet indicated they are walking away from the deal at this point.
According to more details from the Saturday developments:
- Bahrain said it was targeted by "a number" of Iranian drones on Saturday, accusing Tehran of "undermining peace efforts" in the region. In a statement, the country's foreign ministry said it expressed "Bahrain’s condemnation in the strongest terms of the targeting of its territory at dawn today," adding that the attacks were a "blatant threat to the security of citizens and residents".
- US Central Command announced that American aircraft had hit Iranian missile and drone storage locations as well as coastal radar sites in response to Iran striking the M/V Ever Lovely ship with a one-way attack drone as it navigated the Strait of Hormuz.
- "The Singapore-flagged cargo ship was exiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast at the time of Iran’s attack," CENTCOM said, adding that Iranian forces had "clearly violated" the ceasefire agreement.
But it remains that Iran is now firing warning shots at ships that haven't cleared permits to transit the Strait of Hormuz under Iran's own protocol, which highlights that deep divisions remain over each side's interpretation of the terms. The latest via Reuters:
- IRAN WEIGHS WALKING AWAY FROM SWISS TALKS AFTER US STRIKE
- IRAN MAY HALT SWISS TALKS AFTER US STRIKE ON SIRIK
Gulf states have newly condemned "in the strongest terms the treacherous Iranian attacks" on Bahrain, after drones hit the country's territory. The GCC statement further alleged that the Iranians targeted "civilian infrastructure and properties".
Other nations weighed in separately, with for example Kuwait's foreign ministry saying "The continuation of these aggressions, amid regional and international efforts aimed at de-escalation and reducing tensions, represents a dangerous undermining of efforts for peace and stability and a threat to the security and stability of the region," on X.
Amid all the tit-for-tat, Iran's IRGC is blaming the US for breaking it commitments under the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). A Saturday statement described:
According to Article Five of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, arrangements for monitoring maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz are carried out in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However, according to the statement, the United States sought to violate this commitment through various movements and received an appropriate response, and the same will apply in the future. If any aggression is repeated, the response will be broader."
Al Jazeera has meanwhile reported Saturday that that IRGC ‘targets’ US military sites in region after attacks - and so the response could be ongoing.
Independent journalist and pundit Michael Tracey points out sarcastically but aptly that Indefinitely bombing Iran sounds a lot like what you might call "endless war". And so the weekly tit-for-tat escalation might grow more regular until there simply is no more MoU deal to reference back to at all.
Ironically this comes just as Israel, Lebanon, and Israel hailed the signing of a 'trilateral peace framework' in Washington - and as Hezbollah is being pushed out of a political solution in south Lebanon, while the IDF occupation of significant territory remains.
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