Israel sent messages to the US over the weekend, both at the political and military levels, saying that IDF forces in southern Lebanon are committed to the ceasefire, and that all fire from Israel is in response to Hezbollah violations, operational fire intended, among other things, to evacuate casualties, and preemptive fire against rocket launchers.
After each of the incidents since Thursday night, contacts were held with the Americans at all levels, including between the Prime Minister's Office and the White House. In those talks, Israel presented its picture of the situation and Hezbollah's violations, for which diplomatic sources say Iran is responsible.
The sources say Iran was behind all the weekend attacks, including Hezbollah's overnight attack between Thursday and Friday, in which four Armored Corps soldiers were killed and others were wounded, as well as the fire on Saturday in which a soldier from the Commando Brigade was killed and others were wounded.
According to the sources, Israel had warned the Americans in advance that linking the memorandum of understanding to the situation in Lebanon would lead to an escalation of the confrontation with Hezbollah, and that Iran would initiate attacks to create the crisis and deepen the rift between Jerusalem and Washington.
According to one diplomat, who is not Israeli, Iran planned the crisis and the postponement of the signing in Switzerland on Friday in advance, after President Trump publicly signed the memorandum of understanding binding the United States. In doing so, Iran received the agreement's immediate benefits: the lifting of the US naval blockade, the removal of sanctions, and the sharp shift in US policy and discourse in favor of the agreement and against Israel. It is now trying to extract additional last-minute gains.
A political official said the messages sent to the Americans included a list of ceasefire violations by Hezbollah, alongside a clarification that Israel would respond with great force. However, Beirut has still not been attacked, and apparently will not be attacked, at least not intensively. Such an attack is precisely Iran's goal, knowing that the United States, as implied by President Trump's remarks this week and by direct messages, is strongly opposed to strikes on buildings in Beirut.
According to reports, claims and leaks initiated by the Iranians, the strike in Beirut at the beginning of the week nearly derailed the completion of the memorandum of understanding.
At the same time, Iran's political echelon is under heavy pressure, both from street demonstrations against the memorandum of understanding and from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
According to information reaching the US, opposition to the memorandum of understanding is fierce within the Revolutionary Guards and in other parts of the regime, including parliament. They will try to torpedo it, whether by creating difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz or by instructing Hezbollah to attack IDF soldiers.
Looking at it from the opposite perspective, an Israeli official said, Iran gave Israel the ability to stop the agreement by tying it to Lebanon. However, it is doubtful whether Israel will try to do so, given the current discourse of the administration in Washington.
Choking Hezbollah: IDF eyes key assets in Lebanon despite ceasefire
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