According to information obtained by Israel Hayom, the US is not willing to set another date for talks with Iran at this stage. At the same time, grim economic data point to a sharp deterioration and an increasing pressure to renew contacts with the Americans.
Immediately after the breakdown of the Iran-US talks in Pakistan, the Pakistanis began trying to arrange another meeting in Islamabad. While those efforts by the Pakistani mediators were being reported, information obtained by Israel Hayom shows that at this stage the Americans are not prepared to set another date for talks.
The US intends to fully leverage the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington's precondition was the full reopening of the strait, as had previously been agreed, a condition the Iranians did not meet.
According to CNN, senior officials in President Donald Trump's administration are discussing a possible additional meeting with the Iranians, in Geneva or in Islamabad.
Iran's regime, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has almost no reserves left to continue the fighting, according to assessments by diplomatic and security officials in the US and the Middle East. Those officials say the situation is expected to worsen further if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and that Iran's political leadership is therefore likely to press the Guard's leadership to renew contacts with the US in order to secure relief.
Differences between senior Guard commanders Ahmad Vahidi and Ali Abdollahi and the civilian political leadership are deep, and growing. Their refusal to allow Foreign Minister Masoud Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to discuss the nuclear issue without an immediate return in the form of sanctions relief was what led to the collapse of the talks in Pakistan.
Reports indicate that Iran's Finance Ministry and central bank are sending Pezeshkian daily warnings about the state of the economy and that Iran will struggle to recover even if the war ends now, unless sweeping reforms are introduced and resources are redirected toward the economy.
According to a report by opposition-linked Iran International, officials at the central bank of the Islamic Republic warned the government that if the current situation continues, inflation will reach 180% and another 2 million people will join the ranks of the unemployed. The report said central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati stressed to Pezeshkian that Iran must reach an agreement with the US and lift internet restrictions in order to improve the economic situation.
Hemmati took part in the talks in Islamabad and presented Iran's demand for sanctions to be lifted and frozen assets to be released. He made clear that without immediate income, large parts of Iran's population would face the danger of hunger.
The Americans made clear that they would be prepared to release the frozen funds, provided the money was directed to civilian needs. The economic discussion made no progress because of disagreements over the nuclear issue and over Iran's refusal to reopen Hormuz, as it had undertaken to do as a condition for a ceasefire.
The intelligence also points to the collapse of Iran's second economy, the one run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Guards control numerous companies that dominate Iran's energy sector, including oil exports, as well as mining, aviation, pharmaceuticals, heavy industry and more. Almost all of those sectors, except oil, have nearly ceased operating. The meaning is a reduction in the regime's offensive capabilities.
Another aspect, no less important, is the freezing of bank accounts and financial assets belonging to companies tied to the Guards and to their senior figures, meaning a direct blow to the personal wealth of the Guard's top brass.
No comments:
Post a Comment