Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement that he had "instructed the IDF to attack Hezbollah terrorist targets in Lebanon with force" must be put to the test. The past few weeks have proved that there is a major gap between Israel's statements and its actions on the ground in Lebanon, and even now it is unclear what this "force" entails, how long it will last, which targets it will include, and in which areas of Lebanon.
It should be recalled that the administration in Washington instructed Israel not to attack in Beirut, and later to completely hold its fire in Lebanon. The decision to extend the ceasefire last Thursday was also made over Israel's head, despite the fact that Hezbollah is systematically violating the ceasefire with daily rocket and drone attacks into Israeli territory and against IDF forces in southern Lebanon.
This is an impossible and unacceptable reality, the product of the appropriation of Israel's national security by Trump. It is also the result of the Israeli decision to conduct direct negotiations with the Lebanese government "under fire," a move that has been turned on its head. It is hard to assume that strikes now will deter Hezbollah, which is demonstrating a higher level of resilience and determination than was expected on the eve of the war. The terrorist organization understands that Israel is the one under pressure, and is now exploiting this to its advantage.
Israel has no comfortable way out of the situation it has found itself in. It promised residents of northern Israel that it would crush Hezbollah, and it will not meet that commitment. Even now, it is struggling to provide them with full security, while they are under threat and in danger at all times. In fact, the current situation in the north is worse than the one that prevailed in the area on the eve of the war with Iran. Back then, Hezbollah was fully deterred and Israel did as it saw fit, including eliminating hundreds of the terrorist organization's members. Now the equation has changed, and not for the better.
In this state of affairs, empty threats and declarations will not help. Netanyahu must coordinate positions and boundaries with the administration in Washington, which is far more concerned by developments in Iran. He must also accelerate the handling of the northern communities, which continue to be treated shamefully. In the absence of full security, which it appears cannot be provided at this time, the minimum is to grant the region preferential treatment in order to stem the dangerous trend of residents leaving.
Iran continues to raise the stakes
Meanwhile, on the Iranian front, the diplomacy of threats between the sides continues. The abandonment of the negotiations-that-never-took-place shows that both Washington and Tehran are prepared to continue raising the stakes. Iran, it seems, believes that Trump is not interested in renewing the war. It is not certain that it is wrong, although Israel is also struggling now to read the moves of the US president, who changes his mind with great frequency.
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