Summary
Neither side wants to appear 'weak' by flying to Pakistan first without the other side having already clearly committed. Trump warns: 'Expect...bombs' & urges Tehran "release women" said to be on death row.
Iran has informed Pakistan it is sending a delegation, but still no sign or confirmation that the delegation is en route.
Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM
As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade.
Trump on Truth Social early Tuesday: Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times
President Trump has suddenly pivoted to making the 'humanitarian' or 'protect the protesters' argument once again. He has just written on Truth Social the following words, while sharing the below image of eight Iranian women allegedly on death row:
To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Whether these women are actually about to be hanged is another, lingering question - but clearly Trump is trying to inject some more leverage on the US side before the second-round Pakistan talks even get started.
Trump: Iran Has No Choice, 'Expect' Bombs
President Trump on Tuesday said he expects a strong outcome from negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC that "they will end up with a great deal." He added that "Iran has no choice, it is regime change no matter what you want to call it," and emphasized that the US is in "a strong negotiating position."
He said the naval blockade "has been successful" and that US forces are "in control of the Strait." Trump also stated he does not want to extend the ceasefire, saying "there is not that much time" - but added that "Iran can get itself onto good footing with a deal."
He also acknowledged that Iran has likely continued to do missile restocking in the ceasefire interim period, and also moving its remaining missile arsenal around. But Trump also claimed the US is "much more powerful than it was a few weeks again" and that CENTCOM used the ceasefire to restock as well. Importantly he also said the US is "ready to go militarily" and that the world should "expect" bombing - in the instance there's no Pakistan deal reached. And an interesting China reference:
- Caught an Iranian ship with gifts from China, thought he had an understanding with China's Xi, says "that's alright".
Pakistan Talks: Timeline Still Up in the Air
Who will fly to Islamabad first? Al Jazeera comments on the emerging diplomatic standoff before actual diplomacy even gets started, amid the continued tit-for-tat threats of potential escalation on the battlefield:
Pakistan is ready to host the talks. They are planning for them to take place on Wednesday at the highest level. But the White House has been very tight-lipped about when JD Vance will be leaving Washington.
What appears to be going on is the US trying to protect itself from embarrassment.
If it is to send its team, which ends up sitting here in Islamabad without Iran showing up, that would be a huge embarrassment. As a result, there now appears to be a game between the US and Iran over who is going to get on their plane and fly here first.
Per Bloomberg at about 4am US time: "Iran’s state-run TV denies unspecified media reports that an Iranian delegation has departed for or arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US." Latest:
Al Jazeera reports: Mediators received confirmation of US VP Vance and Iran's Ghalifab's arrival in Islamabad at dawn Wednesday to lead talks.
At the same time, per WSJ, Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Islamabad after for days of repeatedly refusing to commit to a new round of negotiations. However, there's not been official confirmation, only signaling, with Pakistani officials insisting the Iranians will be there. And yet, it was only on Monday that Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that there was no plan for a second round of negotiations.
But if all goes well, Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Pakistan today, leading the delegation which includes Kushner and Witkoff. As a reminder, on Monday President Trump said "lots of bombs" will be unleased on Iran if there is no deal, and also given the White House doesn't plan to extend the ceasefire. The key issues of Iran's nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait loom large. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has at the same time warned: "we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield".
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