Nuclear countdown: Iran races for warheads while regime teeters
A report published two weeks ago by Italian research institute ISPI, drawing on Tehran sources, revealed that Khamenei authorized miniaturized nuclear warhead development for ballistic missiles last October – while continuing to withhold approval for 90% enrichment.
Meanwhile, intelligence suggests a clandestine enrichment program operates at an undeclared location, beyond International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting. Since Operation Rising Lion in June, the IAEA has faced severely restricted access to nuclear facilities.
Zimmt addressed the ballistic missile dimension as well. "This isn't purely a numbers game – missile characteristics matter enormously. How vulnerable are they to interception? Do they use solid fuel? What precision can they achieve? Production volume tells only part of the story. But my fundamental point stands – I don't perceive this as demanding immediate action. What troubles me more is that Iran's deteriorating domestic conditions heighten the danger of catastrophic misjudgment."
The senior researcher offered this analysis notwithstanding last week's meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, where they discussed Iran extensively. "The topic definitely arose, but establishing red lines was the critical question – defining precisely what conditions would trigger an Israeli or American military response if Iran persists in capability restoration. We haven't arrived at a juncture where Israel considers striking now an imperative."
"Obviously there's the argument for capitalizing on the current moment, given Iran's compromised air defense posture. But even there, I don't believe the clock demands action tomorrow. Iran may need additional time before presenting a threat magnitude Israel would classify as strategic," he concluded
"What occurred in Venezuela, President Trump's readiness to deploy force when required to generate meaningful change, and Trump's rhetoric undoubtedly stimulate Israeli hopes that something comparable might unfold in Iran and trigger regime transformation."
External assistance: Who could accelerate Iran's nuclear timeline?
While the nuclear threat may not materialize immediately, Tehran remains far from passive, and Khamenei's authorization for nuclear warhead development signals they're advancing toward nuclear power status.
Compact warhead engineering represents a pivotal weaponization phase – converting nuclear material into deployable weapons. This constitutes an extraordinarily demanding challenge mastered by only a handful of nations worldwide, particularly daunting for a state that recently lost its foremost nuclear scientists. Pakistan's experience demonstrates that even absent comprehensive nuclear testing, reaching operational capability required roughly 15 years.
Tehran presumably relies on foreign support to dramatically compress this timeline and offset expertise eliminated through scientist assassinations. Which nation might provide such aid?
Moscow-Tehran connections have intensified recently – encompassing a sweeping strategic partnership accord reinforcing military, economic, and energy collaboration spanning two decades forward. Nevertheless, President Vladimir Putin has long regarded nuclear-capable Iran as jeopardizing regional equilibrium, particularly in strategic zones throughout Central Asia and the Caspian basin where Russian interests concentrate, potentially eroding Moscow's leverage across territories once comprising the Soviet Union.
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