As the press conference wrapped up, I had already started wondering what the ripples - or maybe it would be even a tsunami - of aftereffects flowing from yanking this one guy out of his chair would do around the world.
My immediate thought had turned to Cuba, as I'd already mentioned how the US oil embargo was crimping an already crappy socialist lifestyle on that God-forsaken little island.
The importance of the Venezuelan pipeline to the Cuban communist regime cannot be underestimated. Cuba didn't buy oil from Venezuela - it was given to them.
1. The End of the "Free Oil" Lifeline
For over two decades, the single most important pillar of the Cuban economy has been the "Barrio Adentro" agreement, which saw Venezuela ship roughly 50,000 barrels of oil per day to Havana essentially for free. With the US military now securing Venezuelan ports and oil fields following yesterday's operation, these shipments have hit zero overnight. Cuba, which is already cash-strapped, simply does not have the foreign currency reserves to buy this amount of oil on the open market at global prices, meaning the island's energy supply has effectively been cut in half instantly.
2. The Loss of the "Resale" Revenue Stream
Few people realise that the Castro regime didn't just use Venezuelan oil to keep the lights on; they used it as a major source of income by selling the surplus. Venezuela often sent more refined fuel than the island needed, allowing Havana to sell the excess on the international market to generate hard currency. The fall of Maduro wipes out this "middleman" profit entirely, removing one of the few remaining sources of US dollars the government used to import food and medicine, which will accelerate the humanitarian crisis to breaking point.
Another important point made in the article is that there are somewhere in the neighborhood of 15,000 Cuban intelligence and security operatives, not to mention medical professionals who were 'leased' to Maduro as another source of hard cash, who are now fleeing back to a crumbling Cuba.
Maduro's personal bodyguard detail lost 32 CUBANsoldiers when the Americans came for their boss.
I think it's safe to assume the rest of the Cuban detachment is on their way back to the island.
So all the oil and 'security leasing' funds that Cuba has been running on for decades are now gone, overnight.
They've had continued blackouts on the island, which are now only going to get worse. Again, as the article points out, unlike every other crisis in the dictatorship's history, there is no one to save Cuba from itself this time. Russia can't, and no other of the remaining leftist South American or Latin countries has the wherewithal or the desire to go up against the 'Donroe Doctrine' now in effect.
You also now have a Secretary of State who has always said, 'The head of the snake is in Havana.'
Should the Cuban people rise up, the regime will, quite literally, have run out of the fuel to suppress them in about twenty days.
This is what Trump was referring to when he said, 'Cuba looks like it's ready to fall.'
Iran is another country buffeted by the widening circle of ripples from Caracas. Not only did the mullahs' already tenuous hold on power take a symbolic right to the chin with the decisive US move against an authoritarian dictator, but their national purse did as well.
There was a multi-billion-dollar, pseudo-clandestine cooperative drone program between the two countries that had been running with impunity for years. Iranian designs were manufactured in Venezuelan factories overseen by Iranian management and scientists. An article from this past September is pretty illuminating and should have been alarming, had it been more widely disseminated.
Venezuela’s drone industry, built on Iranian designs, is still overseen by Iranian specialists who block local staff from entering without permission amid a standoff over US warships deployed in the Caribbean, the Miami Herald reported.
The Herald said the drone program began in 2006 when Caracas signed a military deal with Tehran. Iranian firm Qods Aviation Industries supplied assembly kits, Venezuelan engineers trained in Iran, and Iranian teams later worked at the El Libertador Air Base in Maracay.
The program has since produced reconnaissance, armed and kamikaze drones modeled on Iranian systems.
“Cooperation with Iran was essential. Not only could Venezuela never have developed drones on its own, but even today it’s the Iranians who control those facilities. Venezuelan personnel can’t enter without their authorization,” one source who asked not to be identified told the Miami Herald.
The paper said it interviewed half a dozen people familiar with the ties between Caracas and Tehran and reviewed Venezuelan government documents — some signed by Chávez — that showed billions of dollars were funneled into the partnership.
Many projects were disguised as civilian ventures, such as bicycle or tractor factories, but served as fronts for more sensitive military work. At the core, Chávez sought weapons that could challenge US military power, the Herald reported.
“Iran’s ongoing provision of conventional weapons to Caracas constitutes a threat to US interests in the Western Hemisphere, including the Homeland, and the United States will use all available measures to prevent this trade,” the Treasury proclaimed.
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