Turkey is the new threat swallowing Lebanon whole

The wolf in a suit: why Turkey is the new threat swallowing Lebanon whole

Amine Ayoub

As Hezbollah weakens, Lebanon risks trading Iranian domination for Turkish Islamist influence, a shift that could reshape the eastern Mediterranean and create a new, quieter but more dangerous threat on Israel’s northern border

For forty years, the view from Jerusalem has been dominated by a single silhouette: the “Turban.” This symbol embodied the grim, ideologically rigid occupation imposed by Iran’s ayatollahs and their local contractor, Hezbollah. It was a predictable enemy, one that spoke the language of martyrdom, turned South Lebanon’s villages into missile silos, and ran an economy of “resistance” fueled by cash-stuffed suitcases rather than credit ratings.

But as the smoke clears from the latest conflict and the rubble settles in a post-Assad Syria, the region is undergoing a tectonic shift that demands an immediate update to the strategic threat matrix. Hezbollah’s grip is weakening. Its Syrian lifeline has been severed. Yet nature and geopolitics both abhor a vacuum. As the Turban recedes, a new, arguably more insidious threat is emerging from the shadows of the Levant

This new occupier does not chant “Death to America” or burn flags at the 

airport. 

It wears a tailored business suit. It speaks the smooth language of “regional 

stability” and “Sunni protection.” It arrives bearing construction contracts 

funded by Doha and backed by the NATO-trained muscle of Ankara.

While the West and Israel celebrate the weakening of the Iranian axis, Lebanon 

is walking blindfolded into a trap: trading the Shia Islamist prison of Iran 

for the Sunni Islamist cage of the Muslim Brotherhood. The danger for Israel

is that while it marks the defeat of the proxy, it may be missing the arrival 

of the empire.

More...