China erupts over $11.1B U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, warns of “military confrontation and war”

China erupts over $11.1B U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, warns of “military confrontation and war”

Cassie B.

• The U.S. approved an $11.1 billion weapons package for Taiwan, prompting China to warn of potential military confrontation.
• China condemned the deal as a violation of its sovereignty and accused Taiwan of seeking independence through force.
• Taiwan is accelerating defense spending to counter China’s military pressure, with plans to increase funding to 5% of GDP by 2030.
• The U.S. claims the arms sale supports Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, while China warns it will backfire.
• Tensions are escalating, with China’s history of retaliation raising fears of further military posturing and potential conflict.

The geopolitical fault lines in the Taiwan Strait deepened this week after the U.S. approved an unprecedented $11.1 billion weapons package for Taiwan, prompting Beijing to issue a shocking warning to "immediately stop" arming the island or risk pushing the region into "military confrontation and war."

The massive deal, which is currently awaiting congressional approval, includes 82 HIMARS rocket systems, 420 ATACMS long-range missiles, anti-tank weapons, howitzers, and military software, all of which is equipment designed to bolster Taiwan’s ability to repel a potential Chinese invasion. Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory, called the move a "dangerous act" that violates its sovereignty.

China’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun condemned the sale, stating that Washington’s support for "Taiwan independence" would "only end up backfiring." He accused Taiwan’s leadership of "seeking independence through force" and warned that the arms deal would turn the island into a "powder keg."

The package marks the second major U.S. arms sale to Taiwan since President Donald Trump returned to office in January, following a $330 million deal in November. If approved, it would be one of the largest in history, rivaling the $18 billion sale authorized under George W. Bush in 2001.

Taiwan, facing near-daily Chinese military drills and record incursions by PLA aircraft and warships, has ramped up defense spending. President Lai Ching-te’s government plans to increase military funding to over 3% of GDP next year and 5% by 2030, with an additional $40 billion earmarked for defense spending including air defense systems.

The U.S. State Department defended the sale, stating it would "advance U.S. national, economic, and security interests" by helping Taiwan maintain a "credible defensive capability." Analysts note that the HIMARS and ATACMS systems, proven in Ukraine, could give Taiwan the ability to strike deep into Chinese staging areas—a capability Beijing has long opposed.

China has a track record of responding to U.S. arms sales with military posturing, including large-scale drills and sanctions on defense firms. While no immediate countermeasures were announced, analysts expect further PLA exercises near Taiwan in the coming weeks.

The sale comes as the U.S. pushes Taiwan to adopt "asymmetric warfare" tactics such as mobile, cost-effective weapons to counter China’s numerical superiority. Taiwan’s defense ministry called the deal a "significant boost" to its deterrence strategy.

The escalation underscores the high-stakes standoff between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan’s future. While the U.S. maintains a "One China" policy, it is legally bound to provide Taiwan with defensive arms in a commitment that has drawn bipartisan support in Congress.

Yet China’s warnings are growing sharper. Guo Jiakun reiterated that "using Taiwan to contain China is absolutely doomed to fail." With tensions rising, the risk of miscalculation looms large, leaving the world to wonder whether diplomacy or conflict will prevail in the Taiwan Strait.

For Taiwan, the arms deal is a lifeline. For China, it’s a provocation. And for the U.S., it’s a test of resolve in an era of great-power competition. As the 30-day congressional review period begins, the fragile peace in East Asia is up in the air. The next move belongs to Beijing. And history shows that when China issues warnings, it rarely bluffs.