Could Hezbollah attack from Jordan? Israeli officials note worrying signs
The IDF has been fundamentally altering its operational deployment on the border with Jordan, following a spike in arms smuggling from the kingdom and fears of Iran-sponsored terror attacks that could occur along it in 2024.
A military source told Israel Hayom that the baseline scenario for which the Central Command is preparing is attempts by Hezbollah, or other pro-Iranian militias, to infiltrate from the Jordanian border into one of the communities near the border.
The eastern border with Jordan stretches 309 km (190 miles) and it is the longest border Israel has with any of its neighbors. In the past two years, there has been a dramatic increase in arms smuggling from Jordan to the West Bank, and the IDF estimates that Iran is behind the shipments.
This involves more than 1,000 different kinds of weapons interdicted along the border. Among other things, smugglers carry M-16 air rifles, with the air gun mechanisms in the country replaced with ones fitting live ammunition. In one case, a shipment of a directional fragmentation anti-personnel mine (similar to a Claymore mine) manufactured in Iran was even caught at the border.
The IDF knows that only some of the smuggling attempts are foiled. This partially explains the rise in terror attacks and the availability of weapons in Judea and Samaria over the past two years.
The shift from a "peace border" to a "hot border" has been an ever-increasing challenge for the Hashemite Kingdom by Iranian proxies in recent months. Iran-backed forces have tried to infiltrate Jordan from both Iraq and Syria, undermining the kingdom's sovereignty. The Jordanians, for their part, are making great efforts to stop the infiltrators.
Some two weeks ago, an especially serious attack occurred, which according to a statement by the Jordanian army "lasted 14 hours, and large quantities of weapons, rockets and various firearms were seized." In that same incident, a Jordanian Air Force F-16 fighter jet was even used against the infiltrators to repel the attack.
The IDF maintains contact with the Jordanian army, to jointly combat these developments. This contact has also been maintained in recent weeks, during which Israeli residents along the Jordan Valley have reported frequent sounds of shooting from the border area. Social media has even featured videos documenting the sounds of gunfire heard from Ashdot Ya'akov and the surrounding area.
The IDF is not concerned over a scenario in which the Jordanian army turns its weapons against Israel but the conventional wisdom is that there could be rogue soldiers who open fire, as has happened in the past.
However, the IDF is preparing for an equally severe scenario in which those Iranian militias succeed in infiltrating Jordan, and subsequently attack Israel from there.
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