Two predictions – one from a skeptic, the other the vaccine-loving conventional wisdom
But when it comes to vaccines, the stakes of these predictions are particularly high. If last 18 months have proven anything, it’s that virus gonna virus. Our interventions may marginally change the course of the epidemic, for better or worse. But over time, everyone will be exposed to Covid.
The vaccines change that equation. Vaccines – particularly the mRNA and DNA/AAV vaccines – are not masks or “social distancing.” They aren’t feel-good but useless interventions. They are incredibly powerful biological tools, even if our public health authorities have spent the last year portraying them as simple and largely risk-free.
And they don’t just work on us.
They have the power to drive the evolution of Sars-Cov-2. A “perfect” or “sterilizing” vaccine would all-but-eliminate the coronavirus in the wild. The virus would not have enough chances to reproduce to escape the vaccine’s power to stimulate our immune systems. This power is why we don’t have to reformulate most other vaccines regularly.
But – like flu vaccines – the coronavirus vaccines are the opposite of sterilizing. They are “leaky.” They do not keep vaccinated people from being infected or passing Sars-Cov-2 to other people.
And along the way they drive the virus to mutate awayfrom the protection they offer. This problem is particularly serious for the mRNA Covid vaccines, which cause the immune system to be focused not just on the spike protein but one particular part of the spike protein, the “receptor binding domain.”
At its most dangerous, this process may result in “antibody-dependent enhancement.” ADE occurs when a virus mutates so that vaccine-generated antibodies actually help it attach to its targets on our cells. ADE is – fortunately – infrequent. For it to occur, the virus must change shape in a very specific way, so most mutations will not drive it.
But even if full-blown ADE does not occur, vaccines will exert “selective pressure” on viruses to mutate against them. For example, studies have shown that the Deltavariant replicates more rapidly than other Sars-Cov-2 variants (for reasons scientists still do not completely understand).
Speed of replication may be a particular advantage for a virus trying to defeat a vaccinated population – since vaccines are designed give the immune system a head start on finding and defeating pathogens.
The broader issue is this: our immune systems are engaged in an incredibly complex race with viruses and other pathogens. The effect of leaky vaccines can make the outcome of that race even harder to understand, much less predict.
But we know for certain that worldwide mass vaccination campaigns in 2021 have coincided with the rise of the Delta variant, which has nearly completely replaced all other Sars-Cov-2 variants. The Delta variant does not seem to be more dangerous than other variants (notwithstanding anecdotal evidence from the United States about young people dying, the hard data from Britain and Israel does not show higher mortality rates). But it does appear to be more transmissible, which all by itself can cause problems for health-care systems.
Nothing about how the pandemic plays out now can be disentangled from the vaccination campaign. The more aggressive spread of Delta among the unvaccinated is as much a part of this campaign, as its continued spread among the vaccinated. We have totally changed the environment in which SARS-2 circulates, and in response SARS-2 has become more aggressive across the board.
Eugyppius fears – and I fear he is right – that our current vaccination scheme will drive the rise of more virulent variants.
Near the end of his Stack, Eugyppius offers this warning:
Third and probably even fourth doses will be administered widely in the coming months. Delta-specific vaccines are also in the works. All of these will increase pressure on the virus, very likely in the same direction. These vaccinations will favour more transmissible, more pathogenic strains…
It's like anything, play with fire, you will get burnt; Stop madness with poison BS vaccines, all the waiting till need hospital are avoidable, IMO; Take known medicines that work, IMO, take them ASAP on onset of stupid flu covid, build up your own immunity, immune system stronger, and enjoy life, it's what IMO works, BIG BROTHER doesn't want simple, they want CONTROL!
Post a Comment