Iran Newly Emboldened At Lack Of International Response: Israel Stands Alone

Sensing a shift in power dynamic, Iran steps up shadow war with Israel

Lazar Berman

As the Middle East sweats through an August heatwave, temperatures are rising rapidly in the long-running conflict between Israel and Iran.

A decade of shadowboxing between the two, marked by mysterious acts of suspected sabotage and attacks by proxy groups, has intensified in recent months, threatening to bring the regional rivals to the brink of direct warfare.

The ratcheted up conflict has been the result of a seemingly emboldened Iran stepping up actions against Israel or Israeli linked assets, such as a deadly drone strike on the Mercer Street tanker, managed by a company owned by an Israeli, near Oman late last month.

On Friday, hostilities appeared to reach a new peak when Iranian proxy Hezbollah fired 19 rockets into northern Israel, the heaviest such barrage since the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

The increasingly hot war comes at a conspicuous time for Iran: Tehran swore in new hardline president Ebrahim Raisi on Thursday, and talks with Western powers on resuming the 2015 nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which appeared to be steaming ahead earlier this summer, suddenly appear stalled.

“A new international coalition against Iran is not in the offing,” said Henry Rome, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group. “The US and UK may bolster naval forces that patrol the region through the International Maritime Security Construct. British press reporting has also indicated London may conduct a cyber operation in response, which would probably be designed to have limited spillover or escalatory effects. The US will also likely accelerate pre-existing plans to levy new sanctions related to Iran’s drone and missile program.”

“Ultimately, though, this will likely prove too little for Israel, which will find its own way to retaliate,” he predicted.

The Iranian escalation comes as Tehran sense an opportunity to assert their dominance in the Gulf, while also testing new administrations in Jerusalem and Washington.

“I think they feel that they have sort of control right now,” said Moran Zaga, an expert on the Gulf region at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.

Saudi Arabia, long a regional rival, is in talks with Iran over a way out of the Yemen civil war and has little interest in rocking the boat by responding to Tehran’s aggression. The UAE, meanwhile, would rather ignore the hubbub and maintain a façade of stability to continue to attract investment and diversify their economy.

“What is the international community going to do about it?” he askedambassadors from countries on the UN Security Council Wednesday. “Is there still such a thing as international law? And does the world have the ability and willpower to enforce the law? If the answer is yes, the world should act now.”

But Israel shouldn’t expect anyone else to take the lead.

The British are not about to strike Iran militarily for attacks on shipping, and certainly not to stop Iran’s nuclear program. After Iranian seizures of a British oil tanker in 2019 and even Navy personnel in 2007, the UK opted not to respond militarily at all.

The Biden administration also has no appetite for a military strike, which could kill the JCPOA talks and could add another headache for a White House already dealing with a resurgent pandemic and other pressing domestic issues that could hurt Democrats in next year’s mid-term election.

Anticipating the possibility of Israel being on its own, some believe that Tehran and Hezbollah are trying to get a read on Israel’s new leadership.

“If they want to put an end to the rocket fire they could,” said Lerman. “Bennett and Lapid are being tested.”

But this is a recipe for an explosion. The last time Hezbollah thought it could push what it thought of as an untested leadership, then-prime minister Ehud Olmert and then-defense minster Amir Peretz surprised Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by choosing war in 2006.

“Unless the Iranians come to their senses, we are getting closer to the point where the military option in some variation, could become very real,” said Lerman.

The lack of response from the West might make Tehran dig in its heels even deeper.

“It matters in Vienna,” said Jon Ruhe, Director of Foreign Policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security of America.  “If Washington and London simply keep trying to avoid pushing back against Iran’s regional aggression – even as that aggression picks up pace, and even as the Biden administration says those attacks threaten US interests – why should Tehran ever compromise its maximalist demands at the nuclear talks?”

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