Almost a quarter of the world’s countries witnessed a surge in protest and unrest last year and that figure is set to rise further in 2020, according to a new study.
There are 195 countries in the world, if the Vatican and Palestine are included, and a newly released index of civil unrest has claimed that 47 of those states witnessed a rise in civil unrest in 2019.
The data model, published Thursday by socio-economic and political analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, has also predicted that in 2020, the number will balloon to 75 countries.
The U.K. consultancy identified Hong Kong and Chile as the two flashpoints suffering the largest increases in unrest since the beginning of 2019. Neither country is expected to find peace for at least two years, according to the research.
Other areas now considered hotbeds of civil protest include Nigeria, Lebanon and Bolivia. Beyond these three, countries dropping into a category labeled “extreme risk” include Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe.
While the likes of Ukraine, Guinea Bissau and Tajikistan are forecast to experience the biggest rises in unrest, it is larger countries that could prompt the most concern.
The analysis cross references predicted rises in unrest alongside the danger that protesters will suffer human rights abuses or sharp responses from security forces.
Countries identified in this troubling bracket include the highly influential nations of Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Thailand and Brazil.
The U.K.-based analysts claim that as 2019 is unlikely to be a “flash in the pan,” companies and investors will have to adapt to increased unrest.
Maplecroft says there will be increased pressure on global firms to exercise corporate responsibility, especially those in countries “rich in natural resources where mining and energy projects often need high levels of protection.”
“However, companies are at substantial danger of complicity if they employ state or private security forces that perpetrate violations,” the report added.
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