Tuesday, October 8, 2013

A Final Warning?

This timely article is important and worth posting in full. It looks more and more like we will be seeing Israeli action in Iran very soon, and when we do, the powder-keg otherwise known as the Middle East will predictably explode. From this article (and I believe it to be true) - we are looking at weeks, not months before something will happen. 

With no military threat, Iran has no incentive to stop its nuclear progress. Iran might well conclude that the sanctions could disappear in the course of endless rounds of diplomacy. No one in Israel seeks war, but a central tenet of its own defense doctrine is that Israel cannot depend on any external power to deal with existential security threats.

The coming weeks probably represent the last opportunity for Iran and the international community to reach an enforceable deal that will dismantle Tehran's nuclear weapons program, before Israel concludes that time has run out, that Iran has gotten too close to creating its first atomic bombs, and that the time for a military strike has arrived.

Despite Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's well-planned and deceptive charm offensive at the United Nations last week, so far not a single uranium-enriching centrifuge has stopped spinning in the underground nuclear facilities in Natanz and Qom. The heavy water plutonium facility at Arak is moving forward, and Iran has already amassed enough low-enriched uranium for the production of seven to nine atomic bombs.

The speech given by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the United Nations last week, in which he warned that Israel would act alone against Iran if it needed to, is an authentic warning, and serves a dual purpose.

First, the speech reintroduces a credible military threat and aims it squarely at the Islamic Republic.

This notice is important as deterrence against Iran has waned significantly since August, when President Barack Obama hesitantly climbed down from his commitment to carry out a military strike on Iran's ally, the Syrian regime, over its use of chemical weapons to massacre civilians.

A diminished threat of military force leaves diplomatic efforts with Iran almost no chance of success: it leaves Iran with virtually no incentive to stop its nuclear progress, despite the painful economic sanctions it faces.

With no military threat, Iran might well conclude that the sanctions could disappear in the course of endless rounds of diplomacy, in which skilled Iranian negotiators would succeed in getting some of the sanctions lifted while giving up very little in return.

Many of America's allies in the Middle East are very concerned about the lack of deterrence; and Netanyahu, keen to ensure that he has given talks with Iran all possible opportunities before taking matters into his own hands, has placed the military threat firmly back on the table, lest Iran forget that even if the U.S. will not act militarily any time soon, Israel most certainly will if it must.

The second purpose of Netanyahu's speech was to put the international community on notice regarding the urgency of the situation, and to send the message that even if many in the West have fallen for Iran's "campaign of smiles," Israel has not, and if Israeli concerns are neglected, action will be taken.

Should the international community continue to allow Iran to buy more time for its nuclear program, as it has done for more than a decade, after Netanyahu's warning, it will not be able to respond with surprise when Israel attacks Iran's nuclear sites.

Israel's leadership has long since concluded that a nuclear-armed Iranian regime -- a regime that is doctrinally and theologically committed to Israel's destruction, and that controls a state-sponsored terrorist network, active worldwide -- is an outcome many times more dangerous than any military attack.

Israel's defense establishment recognizes that stringent U.S.-led economic sanctions have forced Iran to the negotiating table. But senior officials, such as Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, have warned that merely arriving for negotiations and offering "sweet talk" is no reason to reward Iran by easing sanctions. On the contrary, easing sanctions now would guarantee that talks will fail.

Similarly, any agreement that allows Iran to continue to enrich uranium under the guise of a civilian energy program will simply enshrine Iran's position as a nuclear breakout state. Only tangible, verifiable steps that will ensure Iran is pushed back by years from its current progress could be considered an accomplishment.

Against the background of these developments, it is worth bearing in mind that the core of Jerusalem's defense doctrine holds that Israel cannot depend on any foreign power -- even its most trusted ally, the United States -- to deal with an existential security threat.

Israel's clock, which gauges Iranian nuclear progress, ticks faster than that of America's, due to Israel's lesser strike capabilities, its smaller size, its closer proximity to Iran, and ultimately, because Israel is the openly and repeatedly declared number one target of Iran's ambition to destroy it.

If Israel misses its window of opportunity to act, such a lapse would violate a central tenet of its own defense doctrine -- that Israel cannot depend on any external power to deal with existential security threats -- thereby making that option unthinkable. Once Israeli intelligence agencies and senior military command levels conclude that the clock has struck one minute to midnight, no amount of pressure from allies will succeed in dissuading it from acting in self-preservation.

A military strike would not be a goal in itself, as Iran could go right back to reactivating its program, but it would be a last resort designed to accomplish what years of talks could not: to push Iran back from the nuclear brink.

Israel's strike capabilities remain a closely guarded secret, but according to international media reports, the Israel Air Force has more than 100 F15i and F16i fighter jets that can fly to Iran and return without the need to refuel, as well as, for other jets, advanced midair refueling capabilities that would allow them to strike multiple Iranian targets. According to the reports, Israel also possesses long-range Jericho ground-to-ground missiles.

Any strike, moreover, would be unimaginable without the Israel Defense Force's advanced electronic warfare units.

In the event that Iran orders its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah to retaliate with tens of thousands of rockets and missiles on the Israeli home front, Israel could respond with devastating air force strikes using new weapons systems, and a lightning ground invasion of southern Lebanon to extinguish quickly the rocket attacks and leave Hezbollah on the ropes.

No one in Israel seeks war, and few dispute that a diplomatic solution that can really freeze the threat from Tehran is the most desired outcome.

But so far, beyond empty gestures, Iran has given no indication that it is prepared to give up its program, and time is running out.


ChristineInCleveland said...

Wow.... Are we thinking any time this month or next as the deadline for Israel to take action? I get that distinct idea from all of above article. Bibi is ready to step up to the plate, and with God beside him, I am going to pray for supernatural strength & wisdom to guide all his decisions...

Anonymous said...

For taking the time daily to keep us up to date without digging around ourselves for information.
I look at your updates daily and just wanted to remind you that it is appreciated.

Caver said...

Don't think we're going to have long to wait now. Its about time for Israel to either put up or shut up with the threats. As the article points out, not one centrifuge has slowed an iota.

I don't think for a second that Israel was bluffing. They can't. That means things certainly appear on the cusp of happening.

Still.....I'm troubled. As Mrs C points out, there doesn't appear a word in prophecy concerning this attack.

So, if Iran won't slow down, the US won't attack, and Israel doesn't attack....and Iran is a "tag along" when it comes to the G/M battle....what happens to Iran?

Time certainly appears to be short.....

Mike said...

I can't imagine Israel dragging this out much longer either Caver. The fact is, there is no more time left for them. Fortunately Bibi isnt a Barry, spewing out idle threats without a plan.

I know an Israeli attack on Iran isnt in prophecy, but have you considered that they have been involved in several 'real estate' changing wars in the past 60 years that werent in prophecy either.

My thought is just because God didnt tell us it would happen, that it wont.

It also may be that if they do blast Iran, that the retaliation will be a bigger event than the trigger, and the focus will be on that. If Israel cuts them off at the knees, they will need all their buds to come the rescue.

And I certainly hope time is as short as it appears........:)


David said...

Deuteronomy 29: 29. Comes to mind here.

David P

Scott said...

YH - Many thanks for that :)

Mike&Caver - I tend to agree with your assessments - and I don't think every conflict will necessarily be detailed in the Bible - for instance when Israel took out Syria's facilities. It could serve as the triggering point of the coming wars, and still not be detailed in biblical prophecy - especially if it doesn't immediately affect Israel, significantly.

We shall see - and soon IMO

Sandra said...

If Israel attacks Iran, according to Debka (if the reports are correct), Syria is moving 200 tanks and equipment in the Golan Syria side to get rid of rebels. With all the rockets point at Israel, this really could be the domino effect???


Mrs.C said...

While without question we dont know the finite small wars, skirmishes that occur leading up to the big ones, what we do know is what His
Word says. Its not always what God says, but just as important is what He doesnt say.

We know between now and the Ezekiel 38/39 war/invasion, something will happen to Iran to leave them weak.
The Ezekiel Chapters 25-32, have yet to be fulfilled with finality.

As we know with God, there are no coincidences.These nations will be judged by Him without question, before the Ezekiel 38 war/invasion. One of those consigned to the "pit" (hell) God tells us, is Elam. This is where Bushehr is located in modern day Iran, and we know whats there. God Himself will bring His Judgement on them, and it will be before the Ezekiel invasion. How do we know that? Because next up is Isaiah 17, and these nations set for His Judgement, do not participate...if they did, He would specifically name them and He doesnt...its not like He doesnt know their names...but He does clearly name these nations set for His Judgement and Elam is one of them...

Mrs.C said...

One more tidbit :) Whos the last one one this particular list that God looses His Judgement on? Egypt...

GG2013 said...

Good Morning-

I have a humble question, is it possible with the disarming they are working on in Syria, that some traps could have been left when those munitions were being shipped into Hezzbollah before they began?

In reading the articles coming out yesterday about how much more dangerous this is to destroy them than originally anticipated, along with the mentioning of needing more troops from around the nations to help, I can't help but wonder if they accidenlty hit something and everyone else assumes it is a terrorist attack from whomever they deem the terrorist in their eyes and everyone starts firing to kick everything off. Do you think something like this could possibly play out or in your opinion do you think this disarming is well controlled?

God Bless!!


Sandra said...

Hi GG,

If this is the case, you can bet somehow they will try to link this to Israel and further alienate them..

Everyone's comments give food for thought. Thanks


David said...

Binary chemical weapons or munitions are chemical weapons wherein the toxic agent in its active state is not contained within the weapon. Rather, the toxin is in the form of two chemical precursors, physically separated within the weapon. The precursors are designed to be significantly less toxic than the agent they make when mixed, and this allows the weapon to be transported and stored more safely than otherwise.
Even in the event of a "so called sabotage" or "accidental discharge" the toxin can be released.....excellent point to watch for GG2013.....I could definitely see that playing out.

David P

GG2013 said...

I appreciate the thoughts on this. This article from June really has lingered in the back of my mind and I don't know why...


That was about the time I started thinking OK...now we have another player dictating what should be done. Have you noticed the pivotal changes each time someone thinks of something that should be done and all these nations flock in desperation? Such the power struggle and SA's name is interwoven in so many of these nations.

I have felt for a while that they are so busy being caught up in the political and control aspects of this game of power and pride that they have created--have they even decided that if someone truly, accidently activated something while cleaning up this mess, that could be their key justification to attack? Assad rolled over way too easily...something seems incomplete IMHO.

I could be way off, but because we are not our GREAT GOD and can't see his overall plan, one day we are looking this way...then that way...when it struck me the trigger could be right in front of everyone.

Time will tell I guess. Thanks again.

God Bless!!