Will Russia Retaliate Against NATO?

A Russian Nuclear Attack on NATO?

Ron Unz

...During these months, this dire situation had naturally drawn attention away from other conflicts, notably including Russia’s continuing war with Ukraine. Furthermore, advances in drone technology have drastically reduced the pace of Russian progress on the battlefield, with signs of a deadlock developing. Prof. John Mearsheimer even recently suggested that contrary to his own expectations the ultimate result of the Ukraine War might be the sort of frozen conflict that some others had long predicted.

When that war originally began with a Russian invasion in February 2022 almost all observers had expected a very short military conflict, though one that might have long-lasting strategic consequences. But Ukraine’s very large armed forces fought with unexpected determination while dramatic changes in military technology, especially involving the use of drones, largely halted what had been expected to be a rapid Russian advance. As a result, the war has now easily passed its four year mark, already outlasting the Soviet war against Nazi Germany fought more than three generations ago.

During all of this period, pro-Russian analysts have insisted that Ukraine’s defeat was merely a matter of time, with Russia’s cautious, risk-averse military strategy gradually grinding down the Ukrainian armed forces and likely to soon cause a collapse of the front lines. The argument was always made that huge Russian advantages in manpower, weapons systems, and munitions production were inflicting disproportionate Ukrainian casualties, thereby ensuring an ultimate Russian victory. There were regular predictions regarding the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian front lines or the disintegration of the Ukrainian government, but none of these events ever transpired.

For the last couple of years, I’ve regularly watched Andrew Napolitano’s weekly interviews with Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, someone whose business activities had led him to spend many years living and working in Russia. Although he now lives in the West, he still regularly visits Russia and also seeks to monitor the Russian situation both through his contacts and by watching the leading political discussion shows. In recent months, he has reported a growing amount of elite and popular dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conduct of the war, which many believe has now dragged on far too long without any decisive victory, while killing and maiming far too many Russians.

Doctorow has also claimed that Russians have been greatly disturbed by the increasing number 0f successful Ukrainian drone strikes and other attacks deep inside their enormous land, and the lack of effective responses by Putin to deter these. There have also been other escalating provocations by the NATO countries, including the seizure of Russian oil tankers on the high seas, and these actions have gone unanswered.

In some of his remarks, Doctorow has even suggested that if these incidents and the resulting sense of Russian weakness continued unabated, Putin might be removed from power in some sort of palace coup. Although I’m quite skeptical of this possibility and it has obviously not come to pass, merely broaching such an idea represents a huge shift in apparent sentiment. His blogposts have recently grown scathing in their criticism of Putin’s conduct of the war.

One strange aspect of this current conflict is that Russia has essentially been fighting NATO with both hands tied behind its back. NATO missiles using NATO targeting intelligence and key NATO personnel—legally laundered through the fig-leaf of its Ukrainian proxy—have regularly struck deep inside Russia, inflicting many serious blows, including sinking the flagship and other vessels of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, but Russia has refused to respond in kind. So in effect, the NATO countries have constituted a safe haven for producing and assembling the military hardware and systems used to equip Ukraine’s forces without suffering any risk of Russian retaliation. Russian cities have been struck by NATO missiles but NATO cities and their populations have not faced any similar threat…

This has led to the growing criticism that Putin and his government have been far too cautious, risk-averse, and legalistic in their conduct of the war. This critics have emphasized that they have allowed their NATO adversaries to repeatedly cross Russia’s bright red lines, thereby suggesting Russian weakness and vulnerability and inviting further escalatory steps that might eventually lead the world to disaster.

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