Sunday, March 1, 2026

The Ayatollahs who could replace Khamenei... and the chilling scenario that could make Iran even more dangerous


The Ayatollahs who could replace Khamenei... and the chilling scenario that could make Iran even more dangerous



Numerous US and Israeli TV networks reported Khamenei was dead, citing Israeli sources. There was no immediate confirmation from the White House or Tehran. 

In recent years, a favorite to succeed the 86-year-old Supreme Leader had been the hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, but he was killed in a helicopter crash in May 2024.

One contender, if he survived the bombardment, is Mojtaba Khamenei, 55, the Ayatollah's second-eldest son. 

However, while Mojtaba is a powerful and hardline figure in the background, he has never held government office.

Experts believe an increasing possibility is a takeover by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - leading to a military rather than clerical form of government.

In recent weeks, the CIA assessed that, if Khamenei was killed in a 'decapitation strike,' he would likely be replaced by ruthlessly hardline figures from the IRGC.


'Iran’s military commanders hold the country’s future in their hands,' according to Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program.

'That imperative could well expand their appetites, and when Khamenei passes from the scene - either as a result of natural causes or decapitation strikes - so too could any effort to sustain the pretense of religious legitimacy in favor of military rule.'

That would mean even more brutal responses to popular uprisings amid US entreaties for the Iranian people to overthrow their government.

It would also continue to frustrate US attempts to get Iran to denuclearize.

Alternatively, if it doesn't lurch even more into repression, the regime could appoint a figure who can deal with the United States, in the same way Delcy Rodríguez took over as acting president in Venezuela after the capture of former leader Nicolás Maduro last month.


That could be Ali Larijani, chair of the Supreme National Security Commission who, in recent weeks, Khamenei had given increasing power to instead of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Larijani has been described as Khamenei's 'eminence grise' and is a former IRGC officer, and former speaker of the Parliament. 

In preparation for potential US and Israeli attacks, Khamenei also reportedly named to top officials three clerics as potential successors, but their identities have remained secret.

Although he has effectively been running the country, Larijani, a philosophy professor and trained mathematician who wears business suits, is not thought to be among them.

Another possibility for the role of interlocutor with the US, is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current Parliament speaker, who is close to Mojtaba Khamenei and hardliners in the IRGC. 

According to Article 111 of the Iranian constitution, a three-member council consisting of the President, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council, would take over temporarily in the wake of Khamenei's demise.

The next Supreme Leader would then be chosen by the 88-seat Assembly of Experts.

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