War is a Contagion

India Attacks Pakistan – War is a Contagion

Martin Armstrong

India said it conducted military strikes on nine sites in Pakistan in retaliation for a deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir, intensifying a confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbors. India said its forces carried out strikes on camps that terrorists have used to stage attacks against India, according to a statement released on Wednesday. This was an expected response after it pledged retaliation for an attack last month in Kashmir that killed 26 people. India said it had NOT targeted any Pakistani military facilities. Reports confirm that India fired missiles at multiple targets that, according to Pakistani officials, killed a child and wounded two other people.

Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian airlines, a move India matched. India has ordered Pakistani nationals in India to leave and reduced the number of staff allowed at Pakistan’s diplomatic mission. India’s military has been guarding the disputed border with China since 2020. China is a close ally of Pakistan and its top weapons provider. A war between India and Pakistan could easily see China on Pakistan’s side.

In a hypothetical scenario where India faces a conflict with Pakistan, with China backing Pakistan, India’s support would likely come from a combination of strategic partners, influenced by geopolitical interests and existing alliances:

1. United States:

   • Strategic Partnership: The U.S. has deepened defense ties with India through agreements like LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) and sees India as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific. Diplomatic, intelligence, and logistical support (e.g., arms sales, satellite data) would be probable, though direct military intervention is less certain unless U.S. interests are directly threatened.

   • Quad Alliance: The U.S. might rally Quad partners (Japan, Australia) to exert diplomatic and economic pressure on China, though their military roles would depend on the conflict’s scope.

2. France and Israel:

   • France: A major defense supplier (e.g., Rafale jets), France could provide advanced weapons and diplomatic backing, leveraging its UN Security Council position.

   • Israel: Likely to supply intelligence, precision-guided munitions, and cybersecurity support, given its robust defense ties with India.

3. Regional Partners:

   • Japan and Australia: Diplomatic support and sanctions against China/Pakistan, with limited military involvement unless the conflict escalates regionally.

• Gulf States (UAE, Saudi Arabia): Might offer economic support or mediation, balancing historical ties to Pakistan with growing Indian partnerships.

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