Days, Not Weeks: Israel’s Imminent Attack on Iranian Nuclear Sites
Israel will strike Iran’s nuclear facilities within days.
This sobering conclusion emerges from the convergence of alarming intelligence assessments, failed diplomatic efforts, and lessons from this week’s Middle East Forum (MEF) war game simulation. The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency now warns that Tehran can produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear device in “probably less than one week.” From Jerusalem’s perspective, this shrinking timeline leaves virtually no margin for error.
The fifth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Rome has crystallized the impossibility of a negotiated solution. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s departure mid-meeting on Friday—officially due to his “flight schedule,” while technical teams remained—signals more than scheduling conflicts. The core dispute remains irreconcilable: Tehran insists on its “right” to enrich uranium domestically, while Washington demands zero enrichment capability.
This fundamental impasse validates what we observed during the Middle East Forum’s annual policy conference in Washington, D.C., from May 19-22. Our war game simulation on Thursday, which brought together seasoned policy experts and MEF supporters to examine a Strait of Hormuz crisis, demonstrated how diplomatic failures can cascade into military action within hours. The Iranian team exploited every hesitation, using negotiations to advance their program while mining the Strait and revealing a clandestine nuclear arsenal. Friday’s diplomatic failure in Rome suggests this pattern continues in reality.
On the eve of these talks, Iran took an extraordinary step that should alarm any serious observer. In a letter to the United Nations Secretary-General and the International Atomic Energy Agency, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to hide enriched uranium at secret locations if “threats made by the Zionist fanatics persist.” Tehran would implement “special measures for the protection of its nuclear facilities and materials”—a thinly veiled threat to move its most sensitive materials beyond international monitoring.
Israeli officials have shifted from quiet preparation to barely concealed readiness. Mossad chief David Barnea and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer flew to Rome alongside Witkoff’s talks, tuned to receive immediate briefings on any progress. Their presence accentuated Jerusalem’s determination to understand every diplomatic nuance while military options remained active.
U.S. intelligence has intercepted Israeli communications signaling potential attack plans and observed tangible military movements: forward deployment of specialized munitions, completion of major Air Force exercises, and strike-readiness indicators. As Defense Minister Israel Katz declared, “Iran is more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities. We have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal—to thwart and eliminate the existential threat.”
The operational reality is daunting. Any Israeli strike would require a week-long campaign targeting multiple sites: the Natanz enrichment complex, the deeply buried Fordow facility, Isfahan’s uranium conversion plant, and suspected weaponization sites. Israel has methodically degraded Iran’s deterrent capabilities—Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal reportedly reduced by 80 percent, Syrian proxy networks shattered, Hamas isolated after the Gaza war. As one Israeli security official assessed, “Iran’s regional allies lie in tatters.”
Our war game simulation at the MEF conference revealed truths now playing out in real-time. When evidence of weaponized enrichment triggered action in our exercise, events spiraled from GPS disruptions and cyber-attacks to nuclear detonation within three compressed rounds.
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