YAAKOV LAPPIN
Turkey is deepening its military and political foothold in northern and central Syria, raising significant concerns over the long-term consequences of Ankara's ambitions for regional influence and control.
From the construction of a military base to growing engagement with the Syrian Islamist-leaning regime and a steady flow of Turkish armored vehicles into the area, Israel must now be on the lookout for threats that emanate from Sunni Turkey in a country dominated by Shi'ite Iran for many years under the previous Assad regime.
Israel's recent series of steps in southern Syria, including ground and air operations, the setting up of multiple military posts on the Syrian side of the demilitarized zone, and the setting up of an alliance with the southern Syrian Druze population, appear designed to prevent Turkish-backed Sunni fundamentalists--or Turkish forces themselves--from moving south beyond Damascus.
Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a prominent expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS on Wednesday that there are multiple warning signs.
"After the fall of Assad, we know that Turkey replaced Russia as the dominant player in Syria," said Yanarocak. "When we speak about today's Syrian regime, it is thanks to Turkey, due to Turkish changes and Turkish strategy."
Citing a recent uptick in Turkish involvement, Yanarocak emphasized that "the Turkish intelligence organization, then the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and finally the president of Turkey met with al-Joulani [the new 'interim' Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who headed Ha'at Tahrir al-Sham rebel coalition that overthrew the Assad regime]. And we actually saw the Turkish infiltration--both on the ministerial and military levels."
Amid unconfirmed reports that Turkey was planning to build a new military base in Palmyra in central Syria, the IDF announced on March 25 that it had struck Syrian military bases in the area, including the T4 Airbase. The message to Turkey appears to have been, "Please don't come," said Yanarocak.
Yanarocak noted that last week, media reports stated that Turkey had begun supplying various armored vehicles to Turkish-backed elements in northern Syria. "We will see the Turkish influence, more and more," he assessed.
"Let us not forget that Turkey has a land corridor to Syria and has not yet withdrawn from Syria--it is inside Syria. So we are only going to see more and more penetration, not the opposite."
Turkey appears to be positioning itself through an ideological lens that frames its intervention as a form of Sunni Muslim brotherhood that transcends ethnicity, Yanarocak stated. "The Turks convey the message that we have here a shared Sunni Muslim brotherhood bond," he stated.
As a result, Yanarocak warned, Turkish air force and ground force presence will likely begin to appear all over Syria. He stressed that such an expansion would not include meaningful Syrian input, adding, "No one really asked the Syrian people in the past what they think, and they won't be asked now either."
Yanarocak added, "Turkey has already penetrated Syria. The head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, was the first foreign official to visit Syria and he prayed at the Umayyad Mosque. This signals a shared Sunni ideological camp. This isn't about Turkish dominance over Arabs. It's about a shared ideological brotherhood."
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