Until September of 2024, Iran appeared to be the strongest actor in West Asia. Its ally Hezbollah was launching daily attacks on Israeli military positions which resulted in around 100,000 Israelis fleeing their homes, while the IDF remained bogged down in Gaza and has continued to suffer casualties.
Meanwhile, Tehran’s allied militias in Iraq and Yemen’s Houthis were also striking Israel.
But this war of attrition strategy from Tehran’s Axis of Resistance lacked imagination, giving the Israelis and Americans time to hatch a number of plots to dismantle each of the fronts individually.
While Israel has pulverized Gaza, taken out Hezbollah’s senior leadership and been granted free entry into Syria without even a condemnation from the new HTS-led government, it has not achieved its desired “total victory.”
Israel’s economy has been severely damaged, its society is deeply divided and even its armed forces are in a state of exhaustion. Without the constant supply of weapons from its allies in the collective West, there is no way it can sustain their current offensive posture. Although the Lebanon front has been placed on pause, the daily Israeli ceasefire violations and refusal to withdraw from the south of the country, indicate that war could reignite there at any moment.
In addition to this, the two publicly stated goals of the Gaza war, according to Israel’s leadership – the return of the kidnapped Israeli citizens and crushing Hamas – have not been completed. What has been done to Gaza has also robbed Israel of its international legitimacy and made it a de-facto rogue state in the eyes of much of the global public.
In the West Bank, the Israeli government also seeks to implement plans to annex large swathes of territory, at a time when internecine conflict rages on between a Palestinian Authority (PA) that lacks legitimacy and local armed movements that were formed to confront their occupier.
Meanwhile, the Houthi-led government based in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, continues to confront Israel with volleys of ballistic missiles and drones, which do not relent as a result of Israeli airstrikes against Yemen’s civilian infrastructure. On the Iran front, there is also still a present threat that the IRGC’s missile power could deliver a crushing blow against Israel’s key infrastructure in the event that any direct action is taken against it.
There are now countless fronts which could emerge against an embattled Israel. The fate of Syria is still uncertain and the possibility of it launching an armed response is always on the cards. In neighboring Jordan there also lies the prospect of unrest, which could pour over the Israeli border. In reaction to tensions at Al-Aqsa Mosque and inside the occupied West Bank being provoked by Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, there is also the potential for insurrection that could erupt rather spontaneously.
It is true that Israel has achieved victories that extend beyond the realm of possibilities discussed only months ago throughout analyst circles, yet these could all prove pyrrhic.
Chaos has now been unleashed in West Asia and far from implementing steps to stabilize the situation, Israel seeks expansionism and is undergoing a quest to redefine the Zionist vision altogether. One mistake, or miscalculation, could yet plunge Israel into an existential struggle for survival.
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