The Political Crisis In France Is About to Get Much Worse

The Political Crisis In France Is About to Get Much Worse

Mike Shedlock

The technocrat French Prime Minister proposes the same budget that collapsed the prior French government.

How is that supposed to work?

France24 provides this background on Snap Election Turmoil that led to this crisis.

French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called a snap legislative vote in a surprise move after the far right trounced his centrist alliance in the European elections. After two rounds of voting on June 30 and July 7, neither of the country’s three main political blocs managed to secure an outright majority. A coalition of the French left, the New Popular Front, surprised everyone by taking the lead with 182 seats, Macron’s Ensemble presidential camp won 168 seats while the far right National Rally, who polls had tipped to win, languished in third place with 143 seats.

Following the election, Gabriel Attal, Macron’s Prime Minister resigned. Macron named Michel Barnier as Attal’s technocrat replacement.

In France, the Prime Minister heads up domestic policy while the president heads up foreign policy and appoints Prime Ministers, typically from members of parliament.

Michel Barnier proposed a budget that failed to pass parliament and on December 4, French lawmakers vote to oust Barnier in the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962.

On December 23, French President Emmanuel Macron named François Bayrou as his new technocrat Prime Minister.

Uncharted Territory

Stepping back one more time, on July 7, 2024, I commented France Is in Uncharted Territory, Expect a Big Political Catfight

No Agreement Questions and Answers

Q: Is there anyone acceptable to the far Left except someone on the far Left?
A: According to [far left leader] Melenchon, no

Q: Is there anyone acceptable to the far Right except someone on the far Right?
A: Certainly not.

Q: Is there a center Majority?
A: No

There Is No Magic Solution

There is no magic solution and that was evident immediately from the preliminary results, at least to anyone who can do simple math.

Despite the obvious math problem, perhaps some coalition government compromise forms out of this mess. Just don’t expect it to be stable.

On some issues, notably retirement age, the Far Left and Far Right are aligned. How’s that supposed to ever work?

The ultimate winner in this election will be the party that can stay as far away from the Center/Left catfight as possible.

I believe it’s safe to say that I called this correctly.

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