The Roots Of World War III

The Roots Of World War III

 Francis P. Sempa

The American diplomat and historian George F. Kennan called the First World War the “seminal catastrophe” of the 20th century, and he wrote two lengthy books on the events that led to the outbreak of that war: The Decline of Bismarck’s European Order and The Fateful Alliance. He also included one of his lectures on the First World War in his book American Diplomacy. Reading these works of history gives one a better sense of the root causes of that war, which included policies, decisions, and events that occurred decades before June-August 1914.

When the war began in the Balkans after the assassination of the Austrian archduke and his wife in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, few foresaw that the conflict would eventually engulf most of Europe and parts of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and result in the toppling of four empires (Romanov, Hohenzollern, Hapsburg, and Ottoman), the deaths of more than 10 million combatants, the aerial bombing of cities, the use of poison gas, the carving-up of territories in the Middle East that would engender conflicts that continue to this day, the creation of revolutionary secular ideologies that led to an even more destructive war and a Cold War that followed it. When Kennan reviewed the major diplomatic and international events in the rest of the century, he remarked that “all the lines of inquiry” led back to World War I.

Today, with wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and a gathering storm in the western Pacific, there is concern that the world is lurching toward another world war. 

All three conflicts involve at least one nuclear armed power. Some respected strategists and observers believe that an “axis” of autocracies (Russia, China, Iran, and perhaps North Korea) are collaborating to undermine the global order produced by the end of the Cold War, and are urging the United States and its allies to become more deeply involved in these conflicts. Some have even urged the formulation of a “grand strategy” for winning the Third World War. The “lessons of Munich” have been invoked along with Churchillian-like warnings about the need to confront aggressors now to deter future aggression. Those who counsel prudence or restraint, or who promote diplomatic solutions to these conflicts are often labeled “appeasers” or worse.

Today, the wars between Russia-Ukraine/NATO/US, Israel/US-Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran, and the China-Taiwan/U.S. dispute are regional conflicts that if not limited and resolved may expand into a global conflict among nuclear powers–a Third World War, which, to paraphrase George Kennan, would be a catastrophe from which there would be no recovery and no return. 

Yet, the United States under the Biden administration seems intent on continuing and escalating its involvement in Ukraine, even as it sends mixed signals about our intentions in the Middle East and the western Pacific. Adding to the danger is a growing perception both here and abroad that the American president is cognitively unfit for the job of commander-in-chief and chief diplomat.

Should, God forbid, World War III evolve out of these regional conflicts, historians of Kennan’s depth and insight may trace its roots to the early post-Cold War years when successive administrations expanded NATO and positioned the alliance on Russia’s European borders despite vigorous protests from successive Russian leaders (Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Putin), and prophetic warnings from Kennan and several other experts on Russia and international affairs (including Richard Pipes, Edward Luttwak, Jack Matlock, Jr, Paul Nitze, Fred Ikle, Sam Nunn, Marshall Shulman) that NATO enlargement would produce an aggressive Russian reaction. 

Now, some in the West are calling on the U.S. and its allies to invite Ukraine to become a member of NATO even as Ukraine’s war with Russia gives no sign of ending. This caused more than 60 foreign policy specialists and scholars to pen an open letterto NATO leaders urging them not to invite Ukraine into the alliance.

 “Moving Ukraine toward membership in the alliance,” the letter states, “could make the problem worse, turning Ukraine into the site of a prolonged showdown between the world’s two leading nuclear powers and playing into Vladimir Putin’s narrative that he is fighting the west in Ukraine rather then the people of Ukraine.” Such a move, the signers contend, “would reduce the security of the United States and NATO allies, at considerable risk to all.”