Japan Sounds Alarm on Growing Threats

Japan Sounds Alarm on Growing Threats

Steve Postal

According to the recently published white paper from Japan’s Ministry of Defense, the international community “is facing the greatest trial since the end of World War II.” And Japan stands in the midst of this trial, as the white paper flags multiple concerns close to Japan’s shores mostly instigated by China, Russia and North Korea: “the northern territorial issue [between Japan and Russia], “active advancements to the Sea of Japan by China,” the “territorial dispute regarding Takeshima Island [between South Korea and Japan], “[i]ssues concerning the Korean peninsula,” “China’s attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the East China Sea/Rapid expansion and intensification of military activities [by China],” “[i]ssues concerning Taiwan,” and “[i]ssues concerning the South China Sea.”

Japan’s Ministry of Defense noted that China has been increasing its military activities in the South China Sea, in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, and in the Pacific generally. The white paper warns that the prospect of a “serious situation” like the Russian invasion of Ukraine “cannot be ruled out” in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea. China’s threat in the South China Sea poses a threat to not only Japan, but to the entire international community, according to Japan. The white paper stated that the Chinese Coast Guard has encroached into the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands for a total of 29 days in 2020, 40 days in 2021, 37 days in 2022 and 42 days in 2023, with the 2023 figure marking the second highest number of days since 2008.

The white paper stated ominously that “[t]he overall military balance between China and Taiwan is rapidly tilting in China’s favor.” Japan’s Ministry of Defense noted the swift rise in the number of Chinese aircraft entering Taiwan’s airspace in the recent past, with 380 incursions in 2020, 972 in 2021, 1,733 in 2022 and 1,703 in 2023. Regarding Taiwan, Japan believes that “…China seeks to create a fait accompli where the PLA is operating.” As an implied reference to China’s threats to Taiwan, the white paper notes that “[g]ray zone situations involving territorial disputes are constantly occurring. The use of hybrid military and non-military warfare will become even more sophisticated.”

The white paper also stated that “Russia’s military activity in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, coupled with its strategic partnership with China, are posing a strong security concern.” Japan’s Ministry of Defense states that the growing military partnership between Russia and China, and subsequent “repeated joint activities are clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan and are a grave concern from the perspective of the national security of Japan.” The paper also noted recent joint military actions by China and Russia, including 7 joint flights by Chinese and Russian bombers since 2019, joint navigation from Chinese and Russian navy vessels beginning in 2021, and bilateral exercises. The report also mentions that China and Russia are “…strengthening their capabilities to interfere with other countries’ use of space and that [China and Russia’s]…militaries are involved in cyber-attacks.”

The CCP, of course, quickly attempted to marginalize the white paper. Japan is merely “making a big fuss about the ‘China threat,’” according to a China Dailyeditorial. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian, the white paper “gravely interferes in China’s internal affairs, again seeks to play up the ‘China threat’ narrative, and hypes up regional tensions,” and further warns Japan not to serve as “NATO’s vanguard.” The white paper also “shows Japan’s real intention of provoking regional tensions and demonizing the Taiwan question,” according to Global Times editorial.

As China, Russia and North Korea grow in power in East Asia, will Japan and her allies, particularly the United States, be able to keep them in check? Or will the region’s democracies, economies and trade increasingly be compromised by hostile powers?