Overwhelmed with the multifront crisis of Gaza-Hezbollah-Syria-Yemen-West Bank, Israel, the US, and the West are all stuck in reactive-mode when it comes to the varied threats posed by Iran.
Is it possible for Israel and its allies to map out a different strategy to set Iran back on its heels?
Two think tanks have put out some potential ideas to wrestle with, but there first is a three-part problem to comprehend.
While the Israel-West axis successfully shot down some 350 aerial threats that Iran fired on April 13-14, Tehran could try again, and it is not so clear that Jerusalem would do as well in a second or third round.
Problem one, then, is that Israel, the US, and the West are more vulnerable now than ever to direct conventional attacks – attacks that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did not attempt to carry out in the past.
Problem two is that the latest zigzagging between Iran, the nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the West, appears to have led to a dead end when it comes to Khamenei walking back his nuclear weapons program. Iran has no interest in back-tracking, and the West remains afraid to refer to the UN Security Council, to threaten a snapback of global sanctions.
Also, no one is even remotely contemplating a military attack, given that only Israel and the US have the capabilities for something like that, and America has opposed even the mild condemnation by the IAEA pushed through by European countries. Jerusalem’s response to the April attack was extraordinarily limited and defensive.
Rather than hurt Iran’s offensive or nuclear capabilities, Israel sufficed with striking Iran’s S-300 anti-aircraft system as a response. While this system is the prize of Tehran’s defenses, it is still only defensive and did not reduce Khamenei’s offensive options one iota.
The third problem is the war, and the price it is exacting on Israel: Jerusalem is bleeding in its regular fight against Iran’s proxies, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iranian territory remains mostly immune.
No comments:
Post a Comment