Can Israel resolve the Hezbollah front without war?

Can Israel resolve the Hezbollah front without war? - analysis

YONAH JEREMY BOB

For several months, many Israelis have been predicting an imminent mega war in the North which would put the Gaza War to shame in terms of the harm Nasrallah could cause to the Israeli home front.

This is because Nasrallah has more than 150,000 rockets, around 10 times what Hamas had on October 7, and much higher quality rockets.

Within the IDF, many have grown impatient about finally being given the opportunity to teach Hezbollah a lesson and to facilitate returning the northern residents to their homes with an exclamation point.

National Unity Party leader (and possibly about to be outgoing war minister) Benny Gantz is closer to the same wavelength at this point to the IDF.

He might have wanted them to hold off earlier in 2024, but he has now set September 1, the start of the school year, as the time period when he believes Israel should set an ultimatum for Hezbollah, and be potentially ready to go to war if a deal is not reached to demilitarize southern Lebanon.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back hard against this.

The prime minister has scrupulously avoided committing to any date by which southern Lebanon must be demilitarized or when the northern residents will be able to return to their homes securely.

Netanyahu and much of the government believe that any escalation much above where things currently stand will spiral out of control into Israel’s entire home front being hit with 150,000 Hezbollah rockets.

Some top IDF officials believe a much shorter escalation of weeks with limited targets and goals could get Hezbollah to demilitarize in southern Lebanon without the need for a huge war.

But the government, not the IDF, makes the final decision.

This means that even as IDF officials continue to think a bigger war is more inevitable than ever and soon, the political officials, led by Netanyahu may find a way to end the current battle in the North without a major escalation, without a 100% demilitarization of southern Lebanon, and with telling northern residents to return to their homes based on an improved security situation – but one far short of what they were promised when they evacuated.