An eruption is still considered “imminent,” but the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) said on Wednesday that it now appears less likely the molten lava will burst from a magma tunnel directly under Grindavik, the town from which about 4,000 residents were forced to flee their homes nearly two weeks ago. The latest seismic data suggests that the eruption will most likely occur between Sylingarfell, a few miles north of Grindavik, and Hagafell, further to the northeast.
“The probability of a sudden eruption within the town limits of Grindavik has been decreasing every day and is today considered low,” the IMO said. “It can be assumed that the magma in the tunnel under Grindavik is partially solidified, which also reduces the likelihood that the magma will suddenly break its way to the surface within the town limits.”
However, scientists have warned that the slowing pace of earthquakes in the area may signal that magma is getting closer to the earth’s surface, making the expected eruption more imminent. The IMO reported that about 100 earthquakes were recorded between midnight and 6 p.m. on Wednesday, compared with thousands of daily tremors earlier this month. Stormy weather and strong waves have hindered efforts to monitor the seismic activity.
In recent days, emergency officials have allowed small groups of Grindavik residents to go back into town for a few minutes at a time to retrieve some of their belongings. A BBC correspondent accompanied evacuees on one such trip last week, only to be ordered to leave Grindavik immediately after high levels of sulfur dioxide were detected.
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