I understand why the Kremlin limited its intervention last February to clearing the Independent Donbass Republics of Ukrainian forces. Putin did not invade Ukraine, because he did not want widespread death and destruction in Ukraine, long a part of Russia with extensive intermarriage and mixing of populations. Where the Kremlin failed was in not realizing that Washington would not permit the conflict to be limited to the clearing of Donbass.
Mike Whitney looked beyond Western propaganda for information and presents his findings here — https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/ukraine-is-the-hammer-about-to-fall/ — that there are now 540,000 Russian Army soldiers stationed around Ukraine and in Belarus provisioned with enormous numbers of tanks, artillery, rockets, missiles, and ammunition prepared to launch this time a real invasion. If this report is true, it indicates that Putin has learned from his many mistakes. If the report is false, it suggests that Putin is incapable of recognizing the reality that he faces.
In the Western world Russian studies has degenerated into Russophobia. Objective experts are a thing of the past. One of the few remaining objective experts wonders if the stage is now set for a ground war unanticipated by Washington and NATO. If events have forced Putin to abandon his limited operation, Ukraine will simply be rolled up.
The Polish defense minister seems to be reaching a similar conclusion. There are indications that mobilization is beginning with the callup of 200,000 reservists. Whether this is to protect against Russian attack or to occupy western Ukraine which Poland still claims while Russia takes the eastern half or to be sent as reinforcements for Ukraine is unknown.
If Zelensky and Washington are capable of reason, the reported assembled Russian invasion force, if actually present, will not have to be used. The destruction of Ukraine can be prevented by Washington’s acceptance of the return of the Russian liberated territory to Mother Russia and agreement that Ukraine will be a neutral disarmed state and never a member of NATO.
Putin has said that by spurning his diplomacy, the West has left force as his only means of dealing with the West. Putin’s previous reluctance to use force has worsened the situation. Now if he uses force late in the game, Washington will be confused. How will Washington respond if the Russian Army rolls up Ukraine?
Washington will commit the world to nuclear war if Washington thinks a commitment of US soldiers to Ukraine’s defense would stop a Russian Army advance. The American soldiers would be slaughtered along with the remaining Ukrainians. What then? Can arrogant Washington overflowing with hubris accept defeat, with the consequence being the likely dissolution of its European NATO empire, or will the madmen who are misruling us push the button?
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