Syria is still a central battlefield in Israel's fight against Iran - analysis
KEREN SETTON
The quiet on Israel’s border with Syria is deceiving. Under the surface, and often away from the headlines, Israel has undertaken a major military effort against what it sees as an increased Iranian threat in Syrian territory.
An enemy since the establishment of the Jewish state, Syria has evolved to become the host of a major threat to Israel. Israel once saw the Syrian army as a formidable enemy that possessed non-conventional weapons. While this is no longer the case; the threat has been replaced and the response has been altered accordingly.
The civil war in Syria, which erupted as part of the Arab Spring in 2011, severely weakened the regime and the army of President Bashar Assad. At first, Israel debated its position. The dilemma was whether to help Assad’s opposition topple a regime hostile to Israel or to be an uninvolved bystander. The latter option was chosen, while simultaneously providing humanitarian aid on the border, mostly behind the scenes.
Over the years, there were occasional incidents of stray fire penetrating Israeli territory. Israel’s policy has been to respond to every fire toward the northern part of the country, whether intentional or not, asserting a breach of sovereignty.
Assad in turn would condemn Israel, but given his unstable position, it was a well-rehearsed show by all participants that never escalated further.
Iran has been a major provider of support to Assad, seeing the stability of his regime as a major interest that needs to be defended. For Israel, this was a growing cause of concern.
Russia gets involved
Things became complicated in 2015 when Russia became directly involved in the civil war by inserting its forces into Syria, after several years of passive assistance. Thanks to Russian reinforcements, the turning point was quick to come. In 2016, when Assad managed to reestablish his hold on Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, the balance was tipped. Syria transformed into an arena where major geopolitical interests clash and coexist at the same time.
Israel needed to change its strategy. The decision was to undertake a “campaign between wars” aimed at curtailing the Iranian presence in Syria. The assessment in Israel is that Assad himself will not retaliate against Israel due to a range of domestic and regional interests. Limiting himself to weak condemnations, he has not contradicted Israel’s forecast.
No comments:
Post a Comment