Underscoring the warming ties between the two countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Iran on Tuesday. This was the third time since the start of the year that Putin has met with his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi. Israel is closely watching the strengthening Russian-Iranian alliance.
“We really don’t know what the actual results of the meeting were, whether they signed something in the way of a real alliance,” said Zvi Magen, senior research fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
“We know what they said and what they intended by the meeting. Iran and Russia have a mutual interest in presenting a united front against the West, specifically against the United States, especially as President Biden was just in the region,” he told JNS. “They were presenting a counter-alliance to the one led by the United States against Iran. Whether it includes Russian military obligations, we don’t know.”
Israel is clearly worried about the direction of Russian diplomacy in the region. During a Cabinet meeting earlier this week, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned that Israel should take care not to neglect its relations with Russia.
He said that what Bennett was referring to in his comments was his concern that Russia could become more aggressive toward Israel and move from rhetoric to action.
“Russia’s criticism of Israel has remained on the rhetorical level, but that could change,” he said. “Russia could take practical action, like selling advanced weapons to Israel’s enemies in the region, or making trouble for Israel in Syria and Lebanon.”
Until now, Russia has quietly accepted Israeli sorties against Iranian targets in Syria, and this too could change, he noted. At this week’s meeting, Russia and Iran did sign a statement condemning Israel for its activities in Syria. However, this will have no practical effect and Israel can continue to operate at will over the skies of Syria.
Last month, he visited Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, two former Soviet-bloc countries Putin considers his “backyard,” but that visit was just an appetizer before the main dish—Putin’s trip to Iran.
One can argue, of course, that after the invasion of Ukraine, only a handful of governments across the globe are eager to welcome the person widely perceived as the cruelest, most prominent aggressor of the 21st century. The choice of Tehran as his first major diplomatic trip following his prolonged hiatus is indeed influenced by Russia’s diplomatic isolation in the wake of the bloody war in Ukraine. And yet, it’s not as if Putin is only courting the ayatollahs for lack of a better option.
The visit to Iran indicates the desire of both excommunicated countries to establish an effective anti-West camp, which would help both overcome the ravages of sanctions.
They will want to add more countries to this camp, namely those capable of giving and not just taking. Bashar Assad’s Syria, for example, is willing to join at any time, but what can it contribute? China, however, could join Russia and Iran in a united front against the US and the West, which would be the optimal scenario from the perspective of Moscow and Tehran. But the Chinese don’t intend to serve the interests of others.
In addition to cajoling the Iranians, Putin is signaling to other countries threatened by Iran that choosing the side of the US could be a mistake. In late June, Putin declared that his country’s relations with Iran were of a “deep strategic character.” This was an escalation in rhetoric, and the world is waiting to see if it’s supported by action.
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