How The Latest Ukraine Escalation Split The EU

How the latest Ukraine escalation split the EU

RT

NATO is an extremely public and transparent organization, and while some experts believe this to be the bloc’s primary weapon, it can also be considered a chink in its armor because, thanks to it, all internal disagreements are a matter of public knowledge as well. This includes disagreements among EU member states. This has been acknowledged recently by President Joe Biden, the leader of its key member state. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also made statements to that effect.

Western countries now find it hard to agree on what would constitute an invasion. Apparently, EU member states have failed to agree on whether a retaliation is in order if Russia resorts to a “full-scale invasion” or in response to a “minor incursion” as well. Neither do they seem to agree on whether slapping Moscow with sanctions “too early” would have the desirable deterrent effect.

According to Suslov, there are two sides to this dispute. One side (including Great Britain, Poland and the Baltic states) insists on confrontation, while the other (including Germany, France and Italy) favors negotiation.

The recent incident with Germany denying entry to its airspace to the UK overflights delivering weapon systems to Ukraine is a good example of how far such differences might go. The UK aircraft ended up flying around Germany, spending more time and money. Even though later the authorities denied it to be an issue at all, it’s hard to believe there’s smoke without fire.

In an interview to The Washington Post, Chair of the Defense Committee in Britain’s Parliament Tobias Ellwood said, “To avoid a confrontation, to avoid embarrassing Germany we haven’t formally requested overflights,” adding, “Russia notices all these things, and my concern is that it will egg them on to push the envelope even further.”

Another sign of internal discord was Germany’s refusal to let Estonia supply Ukraine with 122-millimeter D-30 howitzers. Unlike the US, Britain, Poland and other allies, the German government decided not to export deadly weapons directly. This was Berlin’s approach to the issue even before the latest crisis around Ukraine: in summer, ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel openly told Ukrainian President Zelensky that she would continue blocking weapons supplies through NATO.

Berlin also opposes US calls to expand the upcoming package to include sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and measures to cut Russia off from the SWIFT payment system. 

Germany’s stance on the sanctions has already drawn sharp criticism, particularly from the UK, Poland and Estonia. The United States took the most offense: the WSJ even publishing an article titled “Is Germany a reliable American ally? Nein” and scolding the German government for inaction.

Kiev, which is counting on broad Western support, is no less upset. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba went so far as to say that the German politicians’ actions were “disappointing.” “The German partners must stop undermining unity with such words and actions and encouraging Vladimir Putin to launch a new attack on Ukraine,” he said.

Paris seconds Berlin’s call for diplomatic settlement. On January 25, 2022, Chancellor Scholz discussed this issue personally with President Macron, and both leaders agreed that sanctioning Moscow should be the measure of last resort and that the Kremlin’s request for negotiations shouldn’t be denied, especially since Russia is part of a number of international mechanisms, including the Normandy Format talks.

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