CAROLINE GLICK
Last week it was reported that the Israel Defense Forces is planning to change its tactics in Syria and will base its operations against Iranian targets in the area on long-range standoff munitions rather than on airstrikes. Obviously, the move will downgrade Israel's operational prowess.
The report of Israel's new policy of restraint followed the big story of the week: Russia's announcement that for the first time, it had assisted the Syrians in intercepting four missiles fired by Israeli F-16s at targets in Syria. Russia's statement came in tandem with its announcement that it is abrogating its 2015 agreement with Israel to coordinate and deconflict Israel's military operations in Syria from Russian forces in the country.
For Jerusalem, Russia's decision is a major strategic blow.
The agreement in question was initiated almost immediately after Russian military forces first deployed to Syria in September 2015. Immediately after the Russians began setting up shop in Israel's hostile neighbor to the north, then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Russia to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The purpose of his sudden trip, and a series of follow-on meetings between the two leaders in the ensuing months, was to reach an accord that would enable the IDF to maintain its operational freedom against Iranian targets in Syria without getting into a military conflict with the Russian forces that deployed to Syria to assist the Assad regime and its Iranian and Hezbollah masters in their war of annihilation against Assad's opponents and much of the population of Syria.
Now that the Russians have abrogated the Putin-Netanyahu deal, the men who ousted Netanyahu from power face the same bleak scenarios Netanyahu confronted with the arrival of Russian forces in Syria. But, unlike Netanyahu, neither Prime Minister Naftali Bennett nor Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has the ability to fly to Russia and convince Putin to reinstate the deal. This isn't because of anything that Putin or Netanyahu did. It is because of something that Lapid and Bennett have done.
Shortly after Bennett and Lapid took office, Lapid spoke on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and announced that he had committed Israel to a policy of "no surprises" vis-a-vis the Biden administration. This commitment devastated Israel's international standing.
If Netanyahu's speech to Congress ended the international perception of Israel as a second-rate power and a U.S. client, and transformed Israel's standing to that of a regional power; Lapid's "no surprises" commitment downgraded Israel back to its previous status.
With the threats arrayed against it, a unilateral Israeli move that limits its operational freedom by committing it to provide the U.S. with prior notification of its operations makes no sense in the best of times.
It is downright irrational when the Biden administration is feverishly trying to reinstate Obama's nuclear deal as a means to reinstate his strategy of abandoning U.S. support for Israel and the Sunni-Arab states and realigning the U.S. towards Iran.
From Riyadh to Gaza, Abu Dhabi to Tehran, from Beijing to Brussels to Moscow, world leaders understand what happened. The strategic blow that Israel took from Russia this week will doubtlessly be followed by many others. Israel's allies and enemies will assess their options in light of the Lapid-Bennett government's embrace of dependence on a hostile administration in Washington.
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