(Jon Miltimore, Foundation for Economic Education) On March 2, former US Senator Al Franken mocked Texas for lifting all its remaining COVID-19 restrictions.
“Gee, we here in Texas haven’t screwed up royally in a whole two weeks!” Franken tweeted. “I know! Let’s lift the mask mandate!”
Despite what Franken and many other critics predicted, Texas didn’t see an explosion in COVID cases. Instead, the Lone Star State saw cases reach a record low. Indeed, in the month since Franken mocked the announcement, daily cases in Texas fell from 6,834 to 2,078. That’s a 70 percent drop.
Meanwhile, Franken’s home state of Minnesota has experienced the opposite trajectory.
Like Senator Franken, I have a Minnesota connection. I live here, and have for more than a decade. It’s a beautiful state with wonderful people. But unlike many parts of the country, the Gopher State is far from open.
Governor Tim Walz’s “Stay Safe Plan” remains in force. The order limits indoor social gatherings to 15 people (outdoor gatherings to 50). Social distancing “must be maintained” when people from different households gather. Many businesses, such as restaurants, operate under capacity limits (both indoors and outdoors). Masks are required virtually everywhere indoors.
Despite these restrictions, Minnesota is seeing a surge in coronavirus cases. On March 2, the day Texas announced it was lifting all pandemic restrictions, Minnesota’s daily case count was at 425. A month later, on April 2, that number had swelled to more than 2,500.
Across the Mississippi River in the state of Wisconsin, cases remain quite low, even in the absence of state mandates (despite Gov. Tony Evers’s wishes). In fact, if you look at the three-day rolling average (April 2-4), Minnesota now has nearly as many daily cases as Texas.
Minnesota is hardly alone. Several other states with restrictions are seeing similar rises in cases to varying degrees, including Massachusetts (mild increase) and Michigan (a sharp increase).
In Michigan, CNN reports that state statistics show its case count hit 9,350 on Saturday, the highest since December 7. Its 3-day rolling average on April 4 was 6,995.
In Texas, it was 1,646.
In other words, as of Sunday, Texas has about one-fourth as many cases as Michigan even though it has zero restrictions—and 20 million more people.
Numbers often lie, or at least don’t tell the full story. Reports show Texas has been testing less amid the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, which means the government might be missing more positive cases. This might explain why COVID deaths have not fallen quite as fast as cases (though the drop since lifting restrictions is still profound).
In fact, if you compare raw figures (3-day rolling average) Texas actually has more COVID deaths than Michigan, though mortality is still lower on a per capita basis.
Still, no matter how you slice the data, Texas’s numbers are falling rapidly in the absence of restrictions of any kind, contra to what was predicted.
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