Following Iran's decision to lob missiles at US-Iraqi bases last night, several major tanker operators have suspended sailing through the Straits of Hormuz, the site of several tanker attacks last year.
Petrobras, Bahri - Saudi Arabia's state-run tanker operator - and other tanker companies have suspended sailing through the Straits of Hormuz, WSJ reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.
Meanwhile, Gulf officials are already trying to convince the world that there's nothing to worry about in what's essentially a tinderbox inside another tinderbox. United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Wednesday he saw no immediate risk to oil passing through the critical gateway through which 20% of the global supply of crude travels. al-Mazrouei made the comments on the sidelines of a conference in Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital.
The source of their concerns is clear: Iran carried out its "retaliation" for the killing of General Suleimani last night - though the Pentagon has confirmed that there have been no American casualties from Iran's strikes. However, many fear that Iran isn't finished with its retaliation.
On Tuesday, Washington warned about "the possibility of Iranian action against US maritime interests" in the Middle East.
"U.S. commercial vessels are advised to exercise caution and coordinate vessel voyage planning for transits of the Persian Gulf and nearby waterways," the U.S. Maritime Administration said in a statement on its website.
UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace over the weekend sent two warships to the Strait of Hormuz to prevent attacks on British-flagged tankers.
It's understandable that the industry is on edge: Ship insurers have already paid out more than $100 million in compensation over last year’s attacks. Meanwhile, daily tanker freight rates soared in September from $18,500 to more than $200,000 after Trump slapped sanctions on tankers run by a unit of Chinese state-owned Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., one of the world’s largest tanker companies, for allegedly violating sanctions.
Freight rates have since settled between $80,000 and $120,000, depending on the ship. But with the region set to remain turbulent, analysts expect rates to remain "elevated" for the foreseeable future.
"Almost Inconceivable" That Attacks In Iraq Will Mark End Of Iranian Retaliation, Experts Say
Following the events of last night, journalists and regular people on the street have apparently started to realize that this isn't the beginning of WWIII after all.
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"Almost Inconceivable" That Attacks In Iraq Will Mark End Of Iranian Retaliation, Experts Say
Following the events of last night, journalists and regular people on the street have apparently started to realize that this isn't the beginning of WWIII after all.
Let's start with one of the most well-known journalists in the US, Iranian-American Yashar Ali, who delivered the following tweet thread warning the US that, if history is any guide, Iran's true reprisal will come in the form of a terror attack on civilians, likely carried out via proxies.
1. I want to express this carefully cause I don't want to minimize anything that results in loss of life. But missiles flying back/forth in Mid East is all too common (something US can handle) & not what makes me nervous about the Soleimani situation— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 8, 2020
Here's what makes me nervous https://t.co/F2LYk09m5w
2. What makes me nervous is illustrated in the WSJ story. The Iranian government has always operated on its own timeline. If you think Iran lobbing missiles over the border is the kind of revenge they ultimately have in mind, you're wrong. https://t.co/qeL7jkzQhd— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 8, 2020
3. Example: In 2012, assassins kill an Iranian nuclear chemist (likely directed by Israel). Iran promises revenge.
Where does the ultimate revenge take place?
A month later in Georgia, India and Thailand where Israeli diplomats are targeted with bombshttps://t.co/qeL7jkzQhd pic.twitter.com/qEkQP7ddG4
Where does the ultimate revenge take place?
A month later in Georgia, India and Thailand where Israeli diplomats are targeted with bombshttps://t.co/qeL7jkzQhd pic.twitter.com/qEkQP7ddG4
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 8, 2020
6. So what I'm saying is all these people with their chest thumping, I would be cautious about what you see as Iranian revenge and unfortunately prepare yourselves for the kind of attacks that are unexpected, that don't follow a tight timeline, and show up where you least expect
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 8, 2020
7. If people think that this is it...that Iran has chosen to retaliate against the US for killing the second most powerful man in Iran, by lobbing some missiles across the border that didn't result in US casualties then I have a bridge to sell you https://t.co/urRMsYhZji
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 8, 2020
8. I can't believe I'm seeing people saying that this was a face saving move by Iran and now that there haven't been any US casualties, that we should move on.
The level of naivety is astonishing.
Do people really think this is how Iran is going to retaliate?
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 8, 2020The level of naivety is astonishing.
Do people really think this is how Iran is going to retaliate?
Indeed, CNBC adds that blowback from Iran could continue for years, and could come in the form of covert diplomatic action, cyberterrorism or even a more conventional attack.
If President Trump is suitably respectful during his expected address to the nation on Wednesday, then Iran might deliver another "overt response" in the coming days. Jarrett Blanc, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned of such a response in an interview with CNBC.
But if Trump gloats about how the US killed one of their top generals, and all they did was blow up a bunch of rockets in the desert, then it's possible that a furious Tehran could ratchet up the conventional weapons response.
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