Iran struck back at the United States early Wednesday for killing its most powerful military commander, firing a barrage of ballistic missiles at two Iraqi military bases that house American troops in what the Iranian supreme leader said was a “slap” against the U.S. military presence in the region.
The retaliation risks a dangerous escalation in the Middle East. Still, behind the dramatic barrage of more than a dozen missiles, Iran averted casualties by giving some advance warning before hitting heavily fortified bases. This could open a path to step away from an immediate spiral of more direct strikes between U.S. and Iran.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made clear that Iran’s actions were in response to the U.S. killing of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, whose death last week in a drone strike in Baghdad prompted angry calls for vengeance and drew massive crowds of Iranians to the streets in mourning. Khamenei himself wept at the funeral in a sign of his bond with the commander.
“Last night they received a slap,” Khamenei said in a speech after the missile strikes. “These military actions are not sufficient (for revenge). What is important is that the corrupt presence of America in this region comes to an end.”
Despite the rhetoric, there were signs there might not be more immediate retaliation by either side.
“All is well!” President Donald Trump tweeted shortly after the missile attacks, adding, “So far, so good.” regarding the assessment of casualties and damage.
Moments earlier, Iran’s foreign minister tweeted that Tehran had taken and “concluded proportionate measures in self-defense,” adding that Tehran did “not seek escalation” but would defend itself against further aggression.
It appeared Iran gave advance warning of the strikes. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi said he received notification from Iran just after midnight that its retaliation “was starting or would start soon” and would focus only on U.S. positions. The militaries of Finland and Lithuania, which had personnel at one of the targeted bases, said they received information about an imminent attack and had time to move to shelters or leave the base.
Iran’s attacks “appeared designed for maximum domestic effect with minimum escalatory risk,” said Henry Rome, analyst with Eurasia Group.
“For a president who wants to avoid a war in the Middle East during an election year, the Iranians have provided an off-ramp he will likely take,” Rome said.
Tensions have risen steadily in the Middle East since Trump unilaterally withdrew America from Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
The Iranian attacks on the bases marked the first time in recent years that Iran has directly attacked U.S. positions rather than through proxies in the region.
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