A divide within the Popular Mobilization Forces, a group of mostly Shi’ite militias that are seen as pro-Iran, is emerging in response to alleged airstrikes that have struck their facilities over the last month. The divide pits the official line of the PMF against comments made by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy of the PMF and a leader of Kata’ib Hezbollah. On the ground the larger issue confronting the powerful paramilitary groups of the PMF is how to respond.
First of all it is important to remember that the PMF and its 100,000 or so men under arms emerged from the anti-ISIS war as one of the strongest institutions in the country.
It mans checkpoints, has a role in the economy and has even played a role in the conflict in Syria. But it is not a unified organization. It was supposed to become part of the Iraqi Security Forces in January 2018. That was a formality, but it still has its own brigades with their own political-religious affiliations. It has up to 67 individual brigades. Badr is the biggest organization within the PMF, with some 18 brigades linked to it.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq has several brigades, while Kata’ib Hezbollah has another three and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nuajaba has one. There are ethnic and religious groups as well, with units linked to Christians, members of the Shebek and Turkmen, Fayli Kurdish minorities and Sunni tribes. Many of these groups have been designated as terrorist organizations by the US.
Despite the complexity and diversity of the PMF, many of the groups within it are linked to Iran, either because their commanders once served alongside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or because they are openly pro-Iran, or because their religious affiliation as Shi’ites predisposes them to fly flags of the Iranian Ayatollah.
Given this forest of allegiances and groups, the PMF is rooted in some internal divisions, but its general outlook is anti-American and anti-Israel.
Given this forest of allegiances and groups, the PMF is rooted in some internal divisions, but its general outlook is anti-American and anti-Israel.
That means that when munitions warehouses began exploding in mid-July and rumors spread that foreign drones or aircraft had caused the destruction, they began to blame the US and Israel.
A quick survey of statements shows that Kata’ib Hezbollah has blamed the US for being responsible and linked the attacks to Israel. This is Muhandis’ view and one that his organization has pushed since last year when another mysterious airstrike destroyed a Kata’ib Hezbollah base in Syria near the Iraqi border in June 2018.
Meanwhile a sheikh linked to Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba condemned the Iraqi army in mid-August, suggesting the PMF should replace it. He made the comments to El-Etejah TV. On August 19 the organization blamed the US for the attacks.
Qais Khazali of Asaib Ahl al-Haq has called for investigations and demanded that Iraq defend its airspace. The same organization had said Israel was behind the attacks on August 17.
Meanwhile a sheikh linked to Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba condemned the Iraqi army in mid-August, suggesting the PMF should replace it. He made the comments to El-Etejah TV. On August 19 the organization blamed the US for the attacks.
Qais Khazali of Asaib Ahl al-Haq has called for investigations and demanded that Iraq defend its airspace. The same organization had said Israel was behind the attacks on August 17.
Among the PMF there appears to be a dispute as to whether to hold the US responsible, or blame Israel or blame a nebulous foreign power.
Each reaction has its ramifications. Blaming the US has led to Iraq restricting its airspace and pressuring the US to make a statement. In July and on August 21 the US-led Coalition did make a statement saying they are only in Iraq to support the Iraqi security forces to defeat ISIS. Alleging the US is responsible will fuel calls to ask the US to leave Iraq and raise tensions between Iran’s allies and the US in Iraq. This could raise tensions between US forces and the PMF as well.
Blaming Israel for the attacks is potentially embarrassing for the Iraqi government but it also hardens the PMF’s stance enables some groups to see themselves as part of a broader regional Iranian-Hezbollah-PMF struggle against Israel. These elements, such as Khazali, have threatened Israel in the past. They tend to oppose the US and Israel, but blaming Israel for the strikes would fuel Iran-Israel tensions.
Accusing an unnamed foreign power of the attacks means that the only real response by the government would be to close the airspace of Iraq and bolster air defense. Already El-Etejah TV reports that the US is accused of pressuring Iraq to buy the Patriot missile defense system while others in Iraq want to be linked to Iranian air defense or acquire Russian systems.
The long-term question hanging over Iraq is what the PMF will look like in years to come. Will it be a collection of loosely affiliated forces like a confederation with each leader making their own statements, or will it be more formalized and integrated. Will it become a parallel state or swallow up parts of the state or be sidelined. The recent crises with the alleged airstrikes could be a large part of that process and accelerate it.
Iraq is furious after a series of 'mystery' blasts have rocked pro-Iran militia bases in and around Baghdad over the past weeks. Two Iraqi military bases storing munitions held by the country’s Shiite paramilitaries have been hit in under two weeks, with the last one coming Tuesday, notably next to a major air base with US forces present, as well as Iraqi F-16s.
One Iraqi Parliament official told Lebanese broadcaster al-Mayadeen on Thursday that Baghdad has "proof" of Israeli involvement in the strikes, which others have actually blamed on extreme temperatures igniting munitions stores at the bases.
“We have proof that Israeli air forces hit several targets in Iraq, including the al-Saqr and Amerli bases. Israel claims that the Popular Mobilisation Forces have connections to Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah,” said Karim Alaiwi, a member of the Security and Defense Committee in the Iraqi Parliament.
He further charged in the interview that the US coordinated with Israel, given the US Air Force largely controls Iraq's airspace, according to his remarks.
This week Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi ordered the removal of all ammunition depots within the boundaries of the Iraqi capital after multiple fatalities from the mystery blast, with some being the result of unspent munitions going off in the hours after the bases were struck.
Footage showing the August 12th arms depot blast, also widely blamed on Israel:
— Steven nabil (@thestevennabil) August 12, 2019
The Iraqi PM also called for an end to all “unauthorized flights” including US drones, spy planes, jets, or helicopters. The directive demanded that all aerial vehicles comply with Iraqi law and operations must be under Iraqi government authorization.
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