The Rising China Threat

The Rising China Threat

China’s meteoric rise from an impoverished country to a global superpower ranks as one of history’s most remarkable political and economic achievements.  It would be a mistake to think U.S. and Chinese interests are the same, however.  They have arrived with a strategy to contest the U.S. military on all levels — land, sea, air, space, and cyber.  They sell us boatloads of inexpensive merchandise to finance their military buildup while viewing us as their principal foe.  It is time for us to awaken to the rising China threat.

We have been naïve to believe we can hasten democratic reform in China by opening our markets to the country

As the Chinese economy modernizes, we had hoped that political liberalization would follow.  We had hoped economic integration would moderate their autocratic government into a democracy focused on internal development and peaceful economic competition.  This has been an illusion.  China is a major trading partner, but the country is not our friend, nor anyone else’s.  With each day we pretend their intentions are benevolent, we lose what little advantage we may still have.

Both America and China assume they are special and inherently superior to other nations.  Both expect other countries to follow their lead.  Unlike Americans, whose time horizon rarely extends beyond the next election, China plays the long game.  The Chinese are willing to wait out difficulties until they succeed.  They will wait as long as trends are moving their way.  They seek victory through incremental moves designed to gradually improve their strength, by both legal and illegal means, until it grows into an overwhelming advantage.  They wish to avoid war by winning it without firing a shot.

And since no one threatens China, why is Beijing growing its military so fast?  For most of its history, China has been a land power.  It has long had the largest standing army in the world, and now it is becoming a sea power as well.  Its growing navy is starting to contest vast regions of the Pacific Ocean and will soon be moving on to the Indian Ocean.  It has little opposition on the seas except for an overextended and under-resourced U.S. Navy.

While we struggle to find a way to get Mexico to pay for the border wall, China has found an easy way to get America to pay for its military buildup.  Those who worry that tariffs will provoke a trade war are missing a larger point.  American consumers are quite simply financing China’s war machine.  By some estimates, Beijing can pay for its entire annual defense budget with just a few months of what American consumers contribute to their trade balance.  And then they cyber-hack our submarine and fighter plane designs and reproduce them at a fraction of the cost to oppose the U.S.

When President Xi Jinping became China’s leader in 2012, he declared that he wanted to make China strong again.  He wants “Asia for the Asians” and wants the U.S. to withdraw its military from the region.  This has meant a more assertive China.  For now, Beijing avoids high-risk confrontations with Washington while incrementally increasing its economic and military strength.  But they may not remain quiet much longer.