The Banking System Problem

Banking System Has Huge Problem

Money manager Peter Schiff says even though Deutsche Bank is the most systemically dangerous bank in the world (according to the IMF), that is just the tip of severe global financial problems. Schiff explains, “I think it’s a problem, and it’s not just Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank could be the weak link of a chain. 

If you remember back to when we had the financial crisis (2008). First, you had the sub-prime mortgages blowing up, and everybody was like don’t worry about it. It’s contained. I said it’s not contained, it’s just showing up first in the sub-prime market because these are the weakest mortgages. The entire mortgage market has a problem.  I think the banking system has a huge problem because it’s lived off of the life support of artificially low interest rates. As that is removed, it’s like pulling the plug off of someone who has lived off life support. The irony is you have so many analysts that think higher rates are good for the banks. . . . 

Low interest rates saved the banks. You can’t have it both ways. It can’t be low interest rates helped the banks, and high interest rates will help the banks. It’s one or the other. I think higher interest rates are going to crush the banks. I think it’s going to destroy the value of their loans and their collateral. It’s going to lead to defaults . . . All those banks that we’re too big to fail in 2008 are much bigger now, and it’s going to be a lot more difficult to bail them out.”

Schiff issues a stark warning, “This is not going to end well, and I don’t think the Fed is going to be able to save us again. If you get it wrong this time, you’re done. You are down for the count. You just can’t hold and hope. 

If the stock market gets cut in half again, the Fed is not going to bail you out with another round of quantitative easing. They’re not going to bail you out with rate cuts because the next time the Fed tries to do that, it will destroy the dollar. I am confident of that. The next time is the last time. We will have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. Then the U.S. can’t bail anybody out because it’s the U.S. that is in trouble. It will be the U.S. debt that nobody will want to own. It’s the U.S. dollar that nobody wants to own. Whatever the paper profits that people have because they have been in this bull market the last number of years, none of it is going to matter. The profits are going to go up in smoke as the market implodes.”

What about gold in a rising rate environment? Schiff says, “Gold can go up when rates are rising. In fact, gold will go up when rates are rising. Rates are generally rising because you have more inflation. More inflation is good for gold.”