Fragile Iran 'Pause' Shattered As US Base In Jordan Comes Under Attack, Oil Soars

Fragile Iran 'Pause' Shattered As US Base In Jordan Comes Under Attack, Oil Soars

 TYLER DURDEN

Iranian state media in the overnight hours (local) are reporting fresh apparent Iranian missile attacks in Jordan. A "US base in Jordan was possibly targeted" after reports of explosions there, Fars and IRIB report. Tehran officials have insisted they have not requested US talks following the prior nearly two straight weeks of fighting, though a 'pause' took effect last Friday when President Trump ordered a halt to US airstrikes. The day was filled with headline hype of a potential 'resurrected' MoU deal. Once again these 'deal is close' headlines prove misleading and premature. CENTCOM is confirming on the heels of the Iranian media reporting:

• Senior American official: Iran launched missiles toward an American base in Jordan (Axios)
• CENTCOM: IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted

Adding to the uncertainty and jitters of already sensitive global oil, Iraqi militants on Tuesday fired projectiles on Saudi Arabia for a second day, also amid the ongoing missile threat from Yemeni Houthis. According to the Associated Press:

Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that it shot down drones fired by Iran-backed militias in Iraq for a second day, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have forced a Saudi oil tanker to turn around as part of their self-styled blockade of the kingdom.

The attacks underscored lingering tensions despite a period of calm between the United States and Iran, neither of which has announced attacks for days following weeks of escalation over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Saudi Defense Ministry said in a statement that air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones that had attempted to target petroleum facilities in the nation’s eastern region. It said the attacks were “once again launched from Iraqi territory and carried out by Iran-affiliated terrorist militias.”

Oil climbing on the headlines of the rare pro-Tehran aggression during a 'pause':

WTI OIL JUMPS 5% AS US INTERCEPTS IRANIAN ATTACK ON ITS TROOPS

Iran has reaffirmed that if Oman does not agree to its terms for the Strait of Hormuz, the the vital oil transit waterway will remain closed, per Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister. This also as things are again heating up in the Red Sea region, with the Houthis late Tuesday announcing they've once again targeted a Saudi oil tanker for violating the blockade. Reuters reports:

Yemen’s Houthis claim to have fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker, accusing the vessel of violating what they describe as their maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and ignoring warning calls.

The Iran-aligned group’s military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, claims the vessel was forced to turn back.

According to separate reporting, China is holding direct negotiations with Yemen's Houthis to ensure safe passage for its ships through the southern Red Sea.

Iran says it hasn't sought US talks in past 16-17 days, reports Irib News

And a US CENTCOM update on its latest figures: it says that as of Tuesday the US military has redirected 18 commercial vessels, disabled two, and boarded another two to "ensure full compliance of the US blockade against Iran." The latest from Netanyahu's meeting with Trump at the White House:

Channel 12 on a senior Israeli official: Netanyahu confirmed to Trump that additional strikes on rehabilitated Iranian nuclear facilities are unavoidable

More vessels reportedly turning away from planned routes after Houthi threats:

Here we go again... despite no evident change in war posturing on either side, and despite shipping traffic still largely at a complete standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, Fox News is out with claims that the failed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) could be 'resurrected'... bringing us back to the 'deal is close' constant headlines of earlier this summer (though of course the sides were never in reality close - and simply returned to a wider bombing campaign)...

"Mediators of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East believe the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal that would resurrect the failed memorandum of understanding, according to The Times of Israel," Fox writes, based on the earlier Israeli media article. Negotiators from Pakistan, Egypt and Qatar have been haggling over an Oman-proposed Strait of Hormuz management plan. It will involve fee-collection and is backed by the Gulf states, supposedly. The timing of all of this interesting given Trump is currently hosting Netanyahu at the White House. More from Fox:

 Iran and Oman — both of which are situated on the Strait of Hormuz — have reportedly signed off on the proposal advanced by the mediators.

The two sources said the White House was waiting to make a decision until after President Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.

Meanwhile...

JMIC: DATA INDICATES ZERO TANKERS IN EITHER DIRECTION OF HORMUZ

Still, the return to deal 'optimism' has pushed oil prices down further - which is perhaps the entire point of US officials anonymously hyping that a deal is 'close' once again.

Why Did Iran Strike Jordan?

Ukraine-Iran Conflict Nexus Would Overstretch US Military and Economic Capacity

Ukraine-Iran Conflict Nexus Would Overstretch US Military and Economic Capacity

Sputnik

Volodymyr Zelensky’s attempt to merge the Ukrainian and Iranian conflicts through a Caspian Sea strike came with impeccable timing – just ahead of his US visit, former Pentagon senior security policy analyst Michael Maloof tells Sputnik.

"Zelensky grabbed that as an opportunity for his very limited PR purpose of showing Washington and Europe that he’s a team player," Maloof says.

There are also “definite Israeli fingerprints all over this operation”: Zelensky “was put up to it” by the CIA and Mossad, according to the pundit.

But “if anything, these two conflicts are showing the limitations of US power projection" – the US is overextended, lacking the money and resources not only for military hardware but also for keeping energy markets in balance, Maloof notes.

"If Zelensky even attempts — or is even partially successful — in merging these two conflicts, that really stretches, overstretches US resources to the point where the US will not be able to manage or assist on both fronts. Not only in terms of sales of weapons to Europeans to then sell them on to Ukrainians, but also directly in providing weapons to US forces who are directly battling Iranian forces."

Ukraine’s Attack on Iranian Ship in Caspian Sea is Act of Aggression - Russian MFA

Live Updates: Earthquake in Japan caused buildings to collapse as dozens reportedly injured

Live Updates: Earthquake in Japan caused buildings to collapse as dozens reportedly injured

NBC News

What we know

• Multiple people are believed to have been killed after an explosion at a mall following today’s earthquake, local media reported, citing police.
• With a magnitude of 6.8 and depth of 10 kilometers, or just more than 6 miles, the quake's epicenter was in Kumamoto prefecture, on the southwestern end of the country. 
• Aerial footage showed a derailed cargo train, collapsed towers at an industrial plant and a small building on fire.
• Japan sits on the “Ring of Fire,” where several tectonic plates converge and tremors take place almost constantly, making it one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world.

Dozens reported injured, including at a nursing home, according to NHK

About 80 people hurt during the earthquake were being treated at the Yatsushiro Northern Regional Medical Center in Hikawa, a town in the Kumamoto prefecture, as of Tuesday night, according to NHK. 

The outlet also reported that around 10 people were also hurt at a nursing home in the same town.

A staff member at Hayao-en Special Nursing Home for the Elderly told NHK that she was at her desk when the building began to shake violently. 

“I clung to my desk, but the shaking was so strong I couldn’t keep my balance,” the person, who was not identified, said, according to NHK. “Residents in wheelchairs fell over and a staff member fell on me, cutting my arm and causing bleeding. About 10 people were injured, but there are no serious injuries.”

More...

Netanyahu Arrives In Washington As The Iranian Regime Says ‘No Path Remains Other Than Jihad’

Netanyahu Arrives In Washington As The Iranian Regime Says ‘No Path Remains Other Than Jihad’

Erick Stakelbeck

The Bibi is back. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington on Monday ahead of a crucial White House meeting with President Trump. Both men will also attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham, who was a great friend and supporter of Israel.

It’s the eighth meeting between the two leaders since President Trump returned to office in January 2025, and the stakes could not be higher. After nearly two weeks of massive strikes against Iran, the US has paused military operations yet again in an attempt to negotiate with Iran’s regime. The President told Axios on Monday, “We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don’t work out, we will go back to very strong military action… Either it goes fast or not at all.”

Folks, we have been here many times with Iran’s regime since the ceasefire went into effect back in April, and each time the regime has broken agreements and attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This is who they are, and it’s what they do.

You’re never going to get any sort of credible, long-lasting deal with jihadist fanatics who want to usher in the Islamic version of the end times. I believe both Trump and Bibi realize this, and there will no doubt be some serious Iran strategy discussed during Tuesday’s meeting, along with discussion on the way forward in Gaza, Lebanon, and a potential Abraham Accords agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Prime Minister Netanyahu on Sunday: “What will it take [to end this war]? It will take for Iran to understand, either for this regime to fall or for Iran to realize that the cost of wreaking economic chaos on the world, murdering thousands of its own citizens, and shooting at everyone—literally at everyone, at Saudi Arabia, at Bahrain, at Qatar, at Kuwait, at the UAE, at Israel, at Jordan, every single one. This is what this regime is doing when they don’t have nuclear weapons. Imagine what they would do if they had nuclear weapons. I think when this regime is either toppled or it’s sufficiently weakened that it knows it has to end its nuclear program and has to change its course. That’s really what President Trump is trying to achieve. And I fully back his efforts to do so. If he can do so without returning to intense military fighting, that’s fine. Why not? But one way or the other, they have to end their nuclear program. And with a deal or without a deal, that has to come to an end.”

And that, as they say, is the bottom line.

Yet there are reports that Iran has moved advanced centrifuges to a highly fortified underground nuclear site called Pickaxe Mountain. There are no signs that the regime is suddenly “seeing the light.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei—who has not been seen in public since February—posted this weekend that “no path remains other than jihad and resistance.”

Iran is also vowing revenge against Ukraine after the Ukrainians reportedly struck an Iranian ship over the weekend in the Caspian Sea that was delivering weapons to, you guessed it, Russia.

Sam Altman Announces That the Singularity Has Arrived

Sam Altman Announces That the Singularity Has Arrived

Frank Landymore

The “singularity” is here — according to Sam Altman, who we’d wager has an ulterior motive behind promoting this claim.

The OpenAI CEO harbingered this sea-changing paradigm shift on a podcast over the weekend.

“We are now, like, in the singularity,” Altman said on the latest episode of “Relentless,” as spotted by Business Insider.

Definitions vary, but the singularity is generally defined as the moment that the capabilities of thinking machines might start to accelerate at a pace beyond humankind’s control, possibly leading to the creation of a powerful superintelligence.

Whether that’s actually happening right now is dubious. But Altman has a lot tied up in hyping the idea, and he’s been doing it for a long time. In a blog post titled “The Gentle Singularity” published almost exactly a year ago, he claimed humankind is “past the event horizon; the takeoff has started,” saying we were close to building the much-vaunted superintelligence.

“Now we’re actually in the moment that we used to talk about at the lunch table in a very not-serious way,” Altman said on the podcast. “I’ve been waiting for this my whole life, and I think it’s going to be incredible, hugely positive, awesome for the world.”

Altman’s comments come days after OpenAI claimed that several of its AI models, including GPT-5.6 Sol and, mysteriously, an “even more capable pre-release model,” broke out of their research environment, gained access to the internet, and hacked their way into a database to find the answers for cybersecurity tests.

Hugging Face, the open source AI platform whose database the AIs raided, confirmed it had  been hit with an intrusion “run by an autonomous agent framework executing many thousands of individual actions.”

Ostensibly, this was an urgent warning shot of how powerful AI systems have become. It was widely hailed as OpenAI’s “Mythos moment,” a reference to how its competitor Anthropic made headlines several months ago, when its Mythos model apparently broke out of containment in similar fashion. 

That comparison isn’t necessarily a compliment: Anthropic was heavily criticized for using the incident as a form of fear-based marketing, and some have speculated that OpenAI is treating the event like a similar publicity stunt.

In any case, the incidents do feed into Altman’s claims that we’re living in a moment when advancements in AI may soon spiral beyond human control. 

If their models are as powerful as their creators say they are, they’re capable of making mincemeat out of our feeble human cybersecurity measures. Anthropic has been beating this drum, too: last month, it called for a global “pause” on AI development, claiming that the tech was on a path to achieving recursive self-improvement, or the ability to constantly improve themselves on their own.

Of course, Altman says what he’s doing isn’t fearmongering. 

Taking a thinly veiled snipe at Anthropic: “I also think some of the alternative visions painted by other companies are quite terrifying,” he said on the podcast, per BI. “I’m going to make sure that gets pushed against and is not what happens.”