Israel's New Threat: The Turkish Noose Replacing The Iranian Crescent

Israel's New Threat: The Turkish Noose Replacing The Iranian Crescent

 PIERRE REHOV/GATESTONE INSTITUTE

While much of the world's attention remains fixed on Iran and its Shi'ite axis, another geopolitical realignment is taking shape -- more quietly, more pragmatically, and potentially just as consequential for the US, Israel and the Middle East.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched an ambitious diplomatic offensive aimed at unifying the Sunni world under Ankara's leadership. The objective is not merely reconciliation with former rivals. It is the construction of a Sunni diplomatic and strategic "wall," or "noose," around Israel, replacing the Iranian "Shi'ite crescent" with a new configuration of Sunni power.

In early February 2026, Erdogan embarked on a Middle East tour that signaled a turning point. On February 3, he visited Saudi Arabia. On February 4, Egypt. On February 7, Jordan's King Abdullah II was received in Istanbul. These meetings were not symbolic. They marked the culmination of a "normalization" process that has been unfolding since 2022, as Turkey repaired relations that were damaged by its earlier ideological support for the Muslim Brotherhood and confrontations with Gulf monarchies.

The Turkish-Saudi reconciliation is particularly significant. Following years of tension after the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Ankara and Riyadh have now moved decisively toward strategic cooperation. Discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman produced major agreements, including a $2 billion Saudi investment in renewable energy projects in Turkey, targeting 5,000 megawatts of solar capacity. Defense cooperation was expanded to include technology transfers for Turkish drones and air defense systems. Bilateral trade is expected to reach $50 billion.

Erdogan has emphasized "growing strategic trust" in confronting regional instability -- from Syria to Gaza. Turkish and Saudi officials increasingly frame Israel as a destabilizing actor in these theaters. The emerging partnership is not merely economic; it reflects coordinated positioning against perceived external threats, with Israel explicitly cited.

Egypt represents an even more dramatic shift. After a decade of hostility -- triggered by Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood following the 2013 ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi -- Erdogan's visit to Cairo marked the end of a long freeze. Turkey and Egypt have now signed a $350 million military framework agreement covering joint weapons production, intelligence sharing, and military exercises. Turkish air defense systems and munitions are slated for delivery, and bilateral trade is projected to reach $15 billion.

Strategically, Egypt's participation transforms the coalition's scope. As the guardian of the Suez Canal and a dominant actor in North Africa, Egypt provides logistical leverage capable of influencing maritime routes critical to Israel's economy. Discussions between Erdogan and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi reportedly included Gaza, Syria, and Africa--regions where both countries share concerns over the influence of Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

Jordan, long a security partner of Israel despite persistent political hostility at home, has also been drawn into closer alignment with Turkey. Joint statements have emphasized peace in Syria and Gaza and highlighted "common concerns" about regional stability. A future Erdogan visit to Amman is under discussion, underscoring Jordan's integration into Ankara's growing network.

On February 9, 2026, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates issued a joint communiqué condemning what they called "Israeli expansionist policies in occupied territories" and calling for Islamic unity. Israeli media outlets such as Ynet interpreted the statement as evidence of a "coalition of interests against Israel," with Turkey playing the unifying role.

Some analysts describe an emerging "Sunni axis," or noose, influenced by Muslim Brotherhood ideology; backed by Turkish military power, financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and designed, by expanding into Gaza, to encircle and finish off Israel. The isolated Turkish-Qatari alignment of 2017-2021 appears to have evolved into a broader strategy of economic and diplomatic influence, channeling of neo-Ottoman ambitions.

In Libya, once divided between Turkish-backed Tripoli and Egyptian-supported Marshal Khalifa Haftar, Ankara and Cairo are now aligning to stabilize the country and limit UAE-supported militias perceived as close to Israel. In Sudan, near Egypt's southwestern border, the Sudanese civil war continues. Turkey provides logistical and intelligence support, aligning with Saudi Arabia to potentially threaten Israeli access to the Red Sea.

In Somalia, Egypt has increased its military presence to approximately 10,000 troops after Israel's December 2025 recognition of Somaliland. Turkey maintains its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, training Somali forces and developing military infrastructure. A Saudi-Somali defense agreement strengthens this axis, positioning it near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait -- a chokepoint vital to global trade and Israeli shipping. The stated objective is securing the Red Sea against "foreign military presence." The unstated implication is the containment of Israel.

This evolving configuration represents a transformation of what was once considered the "moderate Sunni camp" -- historically aligned with the United States and tolerant, if not friendly, toward Israel -- into a broader Islamic coalition capable of exerting diplomatic, economic and military pressure. Israeli analysts increasingly describe it as the replacement of Iran's Shiite axis with a Sunni bloc influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.

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US refuelers, cargo planes spotted at Ben Gurion Airport amid Iran tensions

US refuelers, cargo planes spotted at Ben Gurion Airport amid Iran tensions

The Times of Israel is liveblogging Monday

As part of the United States’s massive buildup of military forces in the Middle East, American refueler and cargo planes are spotted at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport.

The tankers and cargo planes arrived at Ben Gurion in the past day.

There is no comment from Israeli authorities regarding the American military deployment at Israel’s main civilian airport, and it is unclear if the planes are here temporarily as part of a stopover.

According to the Military Air Tracking Alliance, a team of about 30 open-source analysts that routinely analyzes military and government flight activity, more than 85 fuel tankers and over 170 cargo planes have headed into the region since mid-February, as US President Donald Trump considers whether to take possible military action against Iran.

Saudi message may pave way for US strike on Iran

Saudi message may pave way for US strike on Iran

Danny Zaken

According to a diplomat from the region, Riyadh has conveyed a message that it is no longer blocking a US move against Tehran and is not ruling out the overthrow of the regime. The shift comes amid American pressure and a sense that Iran is dragging its feet in negotiations. However, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to join any military action for fear of an Iranian response.

Saudi Arabia has shifted its stance on the possibility of a US military strike against Iran and is no longer opposing such a move, according to a diplomat from the region. Riyadh is also not ruling out the overthrow of the regime in Tehran, the source said, though it is unlikely to join any military action for fear of Iranian retaliation.

The message was recently conveyed to Washington after mounting American pressure and amid a growing perception that Tehran is stalling in negotiations. According to the diplomat, the Saudis made clear they would no longer block a US strike.

The position marks a departure from Riyadh's recent stance. Saudi Arabia had repeatedly stressed that it was not interested in regional escalation and had made clear it would not allow its territory to be used for an attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had also held talks with Iran's leadership and sent conciliatory messages as part of an effort to prevent deterioration.

In addition, Riyadh has coordinated with other Gulf states to reduce tensions, including through security dialogue and regional contacts. The backdrop has been concern over a potential Iranian response targeting Saudi oil facilities and critical infrastructure, a scenario that has materialized in the past.

Against that backdrop, the latest message to Washington reflects a shift in tone and approach, even if it does not signal willingness to take part directly in military action.

Things To Come: AI Surveillance

AI Surveillance Should Scare Both Democrats And Republicans

Brendan Steinhauser

In a country desperate for unifying issues, there is growing consensus on one: surveillance of American citizens. From progressives who want to hold ICE accountable to conservatives who fear Big Government, an ever-expanding federal government has put many Americans on high alert, and artificial intelligence is only making matters worse.

To quote New York Times columnist Tressie McMillan Cottom, “ICE is watching you.” It is true: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement saw its 2025 budget triple to nearly $30 billion, which would rank the agency as the 14th highest-funded military in the world. Much of the money is funding surveillance technology, including tools to crack phones, monitor social media, and track the movements of U.S. citizens and non-citizens alike. The Department of Homeland Security and affiliated agencies are currently piloting and deploying more than 100 AI systems, including some used in law enforcement activities.

Advanced, aggressive AI transcends the issue. Last year, federal agencies publicly reported more than 1,700 AI use cases – from the Department of Health and Human Services to the Department of Veterans Affairs.

We have heard the horror stories out of China, where AI is combined with social media monitoring, facial recognition, and new-age cameras to track the Chinese Communist Party’s critics (perceived or real), with the CCP following their statements and locations. But is that really unimaginable here?

Leaning on AI companies as core contractors, DHS has long scanned millions of social media posts, using new technologies to summarize findings. At the Environmental Protection Agency, AI spies on federal workers by monitoring communications. Citing “national security” at every turn, the federal government has given carte blanche to Palantir, whose sales and stock price have spiked in recent years. This means integrating Palantir data collection into operations at HHS and the Internal Revenue Service. Is that for national security, too?

What about “pattern of life” modeling that identifies when people deviate from normal routines? Or the rise of “predictive policing,” à la Steven Spielberg’s “Minority Report”?

When pressed on Palantir’s surveillance agenda, Palantir CEO Alex Karp’s argument is that Americans essentially need more surveillance now to be more free later. You read that right: As Karp recently put it, “Freedom from unwarranted government surveillance ... requires the construction of a technical system that is built to make possible oversight of its own use and limit, not expand, the material and information subject to access.”

Federal surveillance is only the beginning of the problem. State by state, police departments and other entities are leaning into AI tools to study citizens and share data from coast to coast. In Florida, Massachusetts, Texas, and other states, thousands of police departments are using Flock’s AI-powered license plate reader cameras to track drivers when they pass one of Flock’s cameras on the road.

Take Massachusetts, where the state has spent millions of taxpayer dollars to monitor the locations of drivers and share that information with a network of over 7,000 agencies and organizations across America. Or consider Maine, where localities are using AI to scan license plates, create digital profiles, and experiment with facial recognition. This information can then be entered into a national database for federal access to information.

With each passing week, the mainstream media reports on “authoritarian AI surveillance” in China, but Americans do not need to look overseas for proof. From social media to our morning commute, we have countless case studies in government overreach right here at home. Our AI surveillance state is driven by a sweeping alliance of federal, state, and local governments with Silicon Valley’s most innovative monitoring systems.

It is not just Washington, D.C., or your state capitol or city hall or Palantir; it is all of the above. When it comes to civil liberties, no fight is more important than the people against the surveillance state. AI has pushed the limits of what is possible at our expense, making post-Patriot Act surveillance look like child’s play.

'This isn’t a token strike,' analysts say as US prepares for a major confrontation with Iran

'This isn’t a token strike,' analysts say as US prepares for a major confrontation with Iran

GABRIEL COLODRO

“As I understand it, this is the biggest military buildup in the Middle East since 2003,” Col. Richard Kemp, a former British Army commander, told The Media Line. He paused on the comparison. The amount of force now in place, he said, is greater than what was visible during the12-day war in June 2025. “It’s very significant military power,” he added.

For weeks, the word “imminent” has circulated in Washington and across the region. But timelines remain unclear. It could unfold quickly. It could take longer. Kemp’s focus was less on rhetoric and more on the military posture taking shape around Iran.

“I think it’s likely there will be a military strike, but I don’t think you’d say it’s inevitable,” he said. “I think it’s very likely.”

There are now four American carrier strike groups either in the wider Middle East or moving toward it. That alone changes the equation. In the surrounding waters, roughly a dozen guided-missile destroyers are spread out, some near the Strait of Hormuz, others operating closer to the Red Sea.

The United States already had a large presence in the region. More than 40,000 personnel are stationed across military bases and naval assets. With the arrival of the most recent carrier group, several thousand more service members are being added to that total.

The air posture has shifted as well. Long-range B-52 bombers and B-2 stealth aircraft have been placed on higher readiness. Additional fighter jets, including F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s, have been moved forward. At Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, alert levels have been raised. The adjustments are not only about striking capacity. They also reflect concern over what might follow.

The 12-day war in June 2025, which began on June 13, had a defined military purpose. Kemp described that round as focused primarily on Iran’s ballistic missiles and on its nuclear program. Israel led the bulk of that campaign, striking air defenses and missile-related targets. The United States joined toward the end. The fighting was intense but limited in scope. It was not framed as an effort to dismantle the regime itself.

Kemp commented that President Donald Trump would likely prefer to force Tehran into concessions without resorting to open war. “I think he would prefer Iran to buckle under the military pressure that’s been building up around them and make significant concessions, particularly on the nuclear program, but also on ballistic missiles and potentially on sponsoring terrorist proxies in the region as well,” he said. “He would like to be able to stand up and say, ‘I have resolved this through negotiations rather than through military force.’”

But Kemp expressed doubt that Iran would offer concessions that are both meaningful and durable. “Nothing that Iran agrees to or says can be trusted,” he said. “They’ll just use it as a tactic to buy time for themselves.”

If diplomacy fails, the forces now deployed suggest preparation for something more than a limited strike designed to send a message. Kemp explained that the buildup must be understood in two layers. One layer concerns offensive capability. The other pertains to the protection of American personnel and regional allies.

“One is what you need to actually damage Iran, bring down the regime, destroy the key components in Iran that are used offensively against other countries in the Middle East, of course, Israel particularly,” he said. “The second element is defensive.”

American forces stationed across the Gulf, including in Qatar, would be exposed to Iranian missiles and allied militias in the event of military action. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would have to consider their own vulnerability. Israel would almost certainly be a primary target of retaliation. Kemp noted that defending “such a wide range of targets” requires substantial resources, not only aircraft and ships but also layered missile defenses and regional coordination. 

Kemp also suggested the possibility of preemptive or parallel action against Iranian proxies. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been significantly weakened since last year, he said, but it still retains the ability to launch missiles into Israel. The Houthis in Yemen remain capable of long-range attacks. “They would have to be dealt with either before a US strike in Iran, or at the same time,” he said. “We’re talking about a much more intensive attack.”

The question of duration is central. Would a new confrontation resemble the compressed timeline of June 2025, or would it evolve into something longer?

“I would say much longer than a couple of days,” Kemp said. “It could run into weeks. It could well be a fairly long, sustained bombing campaign against Iran.”

Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, framed the moment in even starker terms. He told The Media Line strategic debate has already moved beyond nuclear facilities.

“The objective of the 12-day war was to destroy their nuclear capability and stop the rapid buildup with ballistic missiles,” Avivi said. “Now we are talking about taking down the regime. It is something completely different.”

In his view, Tehran misread the aftermath of June 2025. Rather than de-escalating, Avivi said, Iran continued to channel resources into missile development and into sustaining its regional network of proxies, despite domestic hardship. “There is no way to stop this threat and the instability in the Middle East without dismantling this regime,” he said.

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