His elimination is an operational achievement for the IDF and the Shin Bet security agency, the kind Israel has carried out countless times in recent years in every possible theater of war. It is certainly a morale blow to Hamas, but it is far from a strategic victory. Past experience shows that a successor will quickly arise, and that the terrorist organization will not change course. What was not achieved in two years of difficult fighting will not be achieved by one elimination more or less. There is no total victory here.
Still, several things can be learned from this elimination. The first is Israel's commendable determination to continue pursuing those responsible for the worst massacre in its history, certainly if they continue to play a central role in the ranks of its enemies. The second is Trump's limited interest in Gaza, which had been his "baby" until just a few months ago. The third is Hamas' determination to continue holding on to Gaza, both politically and militarily. The fourth is the absence of any solution, contrary to what was promised, to the Gaza issue. And the fifth, following from that, is the possibility, which is not at all remote, of renewed large-scale fighting in the Strip.
The IDF has been preparing for this in recent months and is meanwhile expanding the areas it holds on its side west of the border, amounting to more than 50% of the Gaza Strip. Hamas is also preparing for fighting, mainly in terms of recruiting fighters and acquiring weapons. For now, it is careful not to give Israel a pretext to launch a renewed campaign, although it is difficult to bet that this will not happen in the coming months. The international system, led by mediator Nikolay Mladenov, is expected to face considerable work in the effort to prevent the fighting from resuming.
No comments:
Post a Comment