Middle East on the brink of war: Why US-Iran talks may be the last chance for peace

Middle East on the brink of war: Why US-Iran talks may be the last chance for peace

RT

Another round of talks between the US and Iran is expected to be held in the upcoming days. With regional allies on edge and militant groups warning of escalation, the outcome of the negotiations could determine whether diplomacy holds or whether the Middle East slides toward a broader war.

What’s at stake in the new round of US-Iran talks?

Iran and representatives of the Trump administration are expected to hold another round of talks in the coming days, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday.

The announcement follows a six-hour marathon of talks in Muscat, the capital of Oman, where Araghchi and his team met with Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Steve Witkoff, the US special representative for the Middle East, and Gen. Brad Cooper, chief of staff of US Central Command (CENTCOM).

The venue for the next round has yet to be finalized. Oman may be replaced by another Gulf country or possibly Türkiye, but the focus of the discussions is expected to remain unchanged: Iran’s military capabilities.

At the center of the agenda is Tehran’s nuclear program, which Iran insists is designed solely for civilian energy and research purposes. 

Washington, however, remains deeply skeptical, arguing that Iran’s enrichment levels, stockpiles, and technological advances point toward potential military use. The US wants the program either sharply curtailed or dismantled entirely.

But the nuclear issue is only one of several major fault lines separating the two adversaries.

Speaking at a press conference last Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined what he described as the minimum conditions for the talks to succeed. In addition to nuclear restrictions, Rubio said Iran’s ballistic missile program must be addressed, and Tehran must halt its support for armed Islamist groups across the Middle East.

Those demands reflect long-standing US concerns. Iran’s missile program is viewed in Washington as a delivery system for a future nuclear weapon, while Iranian backing of groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi militias is seen as a destabilizing force across the region.

Red lines that don’t move

Iran, however, has consistently rejected such conditions. Officials in Tehran argue that their missile program is defensive and non-negotiable, especially given the country’s experience with war, sanctions, and isolation. Likewise, Iranian leaders have repeatedly framed support for allied groups as a legitimate response to Israeli and Western influence in the Middle East.

For that reason, expectations for a breakthrough remain low.

Iran is unlikely to make meaningful concessions on its ballistic missile program, nor is it expected to abandon its long-standing allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. If those positions remain unchanged, analysts warn that the path toward military confrontation becomes increasingly narrow.

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