Dmitry Trenin: Russia and the EU drift toward an undeclared war

Dmitry Trenin: Russia and the EU drift toward an undeclared war

RT

A peace agreement on Ukraine that would satisfy Russia is unlikely in 2026. Western European ruling elites, supported by the US Democratic Party and what is often called the ‘deep state’, will likely block Donald Trump’s efforts to reach a settlement acceptable to Moscow. Moreover, Trump himself may harden his position for domestic political reasons: tightening sanctions on energy exports and stepping up measures against the alleged Russian ‘shadow fleet’.

Under such conditions, the Kremlin’s ‘special diplomatic operation’, ongoing since early 2025, may have to be curtailed, while the military operation continues with renewed intensity.

Fighting will likely persist throughout 2026. Russian forces will continue advancing and may reclaim additional parts of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Zaporozhye Region that remain under Ukrainian control. Russia will expand buffer zones in the Kharkov and Sumy directions, with possible advances elsewhere.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will be forced to retreat. But EU military and financial support, combined with expanded mobilization inside Ukraine, will allow Kiev to stabilize the front and prevent collapse.

At the same time, the conflict will become more brutal. A desperate adversary is likely to attempt bloody provocations intended to destabilize Russian society psychologically. Moscow’s restraint – guided by the principle “we are at war with the regime, not the people” – may be interpreted in Kiev not as moral discipline, but as weakness. This will encourage increasingly daring actions, forcing Russia to abandon certain taboos.

The theater of confrontation will also broaden beyond Ukraine and Russia. Anonymous attacks on tankers carrying Russian oil, as well as strikes deep behind enemy lines, will likely be met with covert retaliatory sabotage against European states participating in the proxy war against Russia. 

Joint actions by Ukrainians and Western Europeans could have more serious consequences, provoking responses beyond Ukrainian territory. The undeclared Russia-EU war will intensify, though a direct, large-scale military clash remains unlikely in 2026.

The current regime in Kiev will likely remain in place through 2026. But a change of leadership is possible. Zelensky could be forced out through a corruption scandal or political maneuvering. In that scenario he may be replaced by a heavyweight such as General Valery Zaluzhny. Or, more likely, by Kirill Budanov, who is on Russia’s list of terrorists and extremists but is considered more flexible.

Ukraine will come under even deeper Western European control. Conditions inside the country will continue to worsen, though the population will not yet experience a mass ‘sobering-up’. The most active part of Ukrainian society remains sharply anti-Russian.

The West of Europe: Liberal globalism, but limited capacity

Western Europe will remain a stronghold of liberal globalism. Despite growing unpopularity, the governments of Britain, Germany and France will likely manage to stay in power through 2026. The ‘change of elites’ that some believe necessary for normalization with Russia will not happen soon, if it happens at all.

The EU are UK are not preparing for war with Russia in the classic sense. Rather, they are preparing for a long military confrontation modelled on the Cold War. This confrontation, framed as defending “European freedom and civilization from Russian barbarism,” has already become the EU’s principal unifying narrative. It will likely endure through 2026.

Yet Western Europe’s practical militarization will probably lag behind last year’s grand declarations. EU states face fiscal constraints. They must compensate for Washington’s unwillingness to fund Ukraine directly. And governments know that cutting social spending sharply risks voter revolt. These realities will restrain militaristic zeal.

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