Delusions of Homo Economicus aside, we each see the world differently via the unconscious cognitive ‘grid’ we all impose on it. Yet in highly unstable times, one needs to check if one’s grid is stable enough to cope.
A week after boasting it had achieved 100% renewables energy power for the first time, Spain’s power grid suffered a crippling blackout, along with Portugal’s. Apparently, this was due to over-reliance on what are always fluctuating power sources vs. the base power that comes from fossil fuels, nuclear, or storage batteries.
Total chaos and a state of emergency ensued: those without cash couldn’t operate – most businesses didn’t; neither did trains, planes, or traffic lights. A never-before tried renewables-based grid black start had restored 3/4 of power at time of writing. The lessons from this shock are: 1) this is what a cyberattack on the West could look like – and we aren’t ready; and 2) as global energy expert @aberman12 makes clear, we can’t rely on renewables power without back-up batteries. Further massive investment is needed; or a return to fossil fuels or nuclear; or we run the risk of black outs from time to time.
Talking of shocks and massive investments, the US says it’s close to giving up on its peace deal for Ukraine: Europe is worried it’s going to walk away, leaving it to carry the defense can. Note recent rumors the UK is unwilling to send troops to Ukraine on concerns that it could lead to direct UK-Russia clashes. The same obviously applies for Europe.
Therefore, the EU and UK will tomorrow announce a strategic partnership aimed at “maintaining global economic stability and our mutual commitment to free and open trade,” along with security cooperation –
though whether that means either side will risk a Russia clash absent US cover remains to be seen. Moreover, that’s ahead of a by-election and local elections this week where the Labor government was already going to get hit hard by the anti-EU/pro-US Reform Party – the size of that blow may increase in proportion to the commitment to that new UK-EU deal. Furthermore, how is that new partnership compatible with the UK --who are trying-- and Europe --who reportedly aren’t-- striking a US trade deal? Do they come as a package now, or not at all?
Equally, the UK is reportedly also close to an FTA with India; yet India is close to a deal with the US that isn’t going to be for “free and open” trade with China. Likewise, Canada’s election --where Trump had called for people to vote for the candidate who would make it the 51st state-- looks like seeing acting PM Carney as the one who will have to accept the “No more China” trade terms that Trump will impose, regardless of what he said pre-election.
Expand, or contract, your mental grid to see that “Free trade first” fluctuations aren’t compatible with baseload “security first” realpolitik.
As an example, Pakistan just warned of imminent India military action against it in response to a recent terror attack in Kashmir, to which China stated: “As Pakistan's ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan's legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” with rumours it and Turkey are sending Pakistan weapons.
No comments:
Post a Comment