Iran has ten ways to attack Israel; which one will it choose? - analysis

Iran has ten ways to attack Israel; which one will it choose? - analysis

SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Iran has vowed to “punish” Israel for an airstrike in Damascus on April 1 that Tehran blamed on the Jewish state. Over the last week and a half, Iranian leaders have made repeated threats against Israel. This has led to heightened tensions in the region. Iran has a track record of threatening Israel. It also has a track record of using its proxies to threaten and attack Israel. What follows is a list of different types of attacks the Islamic Republic could carry out based on how it has behaved in the past.

Iran has a large arsenal of ballistic missiles of varying types and ranges. Some are solid-fueled, and some are liquid-fueled, which means some can be rushed out to be fired relatively quickly, and others take time to prepare and position. Israel’s mortal enemy has used ballistic missiles frequently in the past.

Tehran used ballistic missiles to target the Al-Asad Base in Iraq on January 8, 2020, in retaliation for America’s assassination of IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani. Iran launched up to 22 missiles, targeting both Asad where US troops are based in western Iraq, and the Kurdistan autonomous region that hosts US forces. The missiles were launched from several locations in Iran, and 11 of them struck Asad base. Iran informed the Iraqis just before they launched the missiles.

The missiles were launched beginning at 1:20 a.m., and the attack continued for several hours. It is believed that Iran used the Fateh 313 and Qiam ballistic missiles in the attack, which contain warheads of more than 450 kg.

Iran has been moving missiles and drones to Iraq for several years. Beginning in around 2018, reports emerged in various media that Iran was basing missiles in Iraq. It was not clear after 2019 what became of these missiles because the reports about them stopped occurring.

Anbar Province is the closest part of Iraq to Israel. It is also where Saddam Hussein placed Scud missiles that targeted Israel in the 1991 war. A lot of effort was spent at the time by the US-led coalition seeking to “hunt” down the elusive Scud launchers. Iran may seek to place long-range missiles in Iraq and recreate a Saddam scenario.

New long-range ballistic missiles Iran recently tested

In January 2024, Iran carried out missile attacks on Pakistan and Syria, claiming to be targeting terrorist groups. Tehran used this occasion to test the precision of its missiles. It used long-range and relatively new Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles in Syria.

The attack was a “message” for the US and Israel, according to Iranian media. The missile had been unveiled in 2022. Iran claims it has a range of 1,450 km. and is supposed to have high-speed and precision-strike capabilities, which makes it a dangerous strategic weapon.

An Iranian-backed coalition of Houthis, Hezbollah, and other groups 

Iran could attempt to carry out a multi-front attack on Israel using groups it has already pushed to attack the Jewish state since October 7. For instance, the Houthis in Yemen have long-range missiles and drones that they have already used numerous times to threaten Israel. The Houthi threat goes back to at least 2020 when they acquired the Iranian Shahed 136. This is the same type of drone that Iran has exported to Russia, having a range of around 2,000 km.

Tehran has systematically increased the range of its various types of drones. It prefers kamikaze drones because of their low cost, and also because they can be pre-programmed to fly waypoint flight trajectories and shooting actions that make them difficult to detect. They are also not very large, which also gives some of them a low radar cross signature.

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