We previously reported that Iran now considers Israel's embassies and diplomatic sites abroad as essentially fair game in the wake of Israel's April 1st airstrikes on Iran's embassy in Damascus, which killed two high-ranking IRGC generals and at least five others.
An analyst from the Middle East Institute, Jason Brodsky, observed last week that "There are reports Iran's regime may be eyeing hitting an Israel diplomatic compound in a third country via drones & missiles. Israel maintains embassies in Bahrain; UAE; Jordan; Egypt; Azerbaijan; & Turkey. I would keep an eye on Jordan."
Russia's Foreign Ministry had underscored in reacting to the Israeli strike on the Iranian consular compound "the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions, to be categorically unacceptable."
Iran on Thursday is making noise over this at the UN Security Council in New York. Iran's permanent mission to the UN has blasted the council for failing to condemn Israel’s "reprehensible act of aggression" on Iran’s diplomatic premises in Syria. Al Jazeera reports the Iranian ambassador's fresh statement as follows:
It said in a statement on X that if the perpetrators had been brought to justice, "the imperative for Iran to punish this rogue regime [Israel] might have been obviated."
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials have promised retaliation for the attack on the consulate building that killed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals.
So Iran is now saying that in light of UN inaction, which has not so much resulted in verbal censure of Israeli actions, it will be 'forced' to respond militarily.
All of this could spark a major war in the Middle East, possibly including US military intervention on behalf of Israel as well well, with President Biden having just promised"ironclad support" in defense of Israel. "As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad," Biden said Wednesday. "Let me say it again — ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security." He explained this is in response to Tehran "threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel."
Iran appears to be taking its time, waiting patiently while it plans a response. Israel has made very clear that any attack launched from Iranian soil will be met with a stronger response against the territory of the Islamic Republic. There are fresh reports saying Tehran has so far delayed its retaliation due to Washington threats that it will join Israel in hitting back against any strikes.
Below is commentary on what could happen next submitted by Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official who went on to serve as deputy and then as senior Arab affairs adviser to Jerusalem Mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, operating as a negotiator during the first and second intifadas.
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