The sense that things are bad, and getting worse, is palpable. There is an undeniable eschatological tint to today’s zeitgeist. Spiralling geo-political factors all suggest extreme turbulence ahead.
And Ukraine – which was to be precursor to the toppling of Russia per se – looks more likely to descend into débâcle. With defeat on two fronts (the financial ‘war’ and diplomatic) already established, and with the Ukrainian entity now incrementally atrophying under Russian military attrition on yet another front, Washington frets whether or not to run a Ukrainian offensive at all – fearing it might seal a Ukrainian catastrophe.
Kiev hears Washington’s equivocation on the likely outcome of the Ukrainian offensive; Kiev understands too that this could mean ‘curtains’ for the Zelensky ‘project’ – were Biden to decide that it is time to draw a line under it, and to complete the pivot to China. It would mean literally ‘the end’ for most of the Kiev leadership.
The change in strategy is already evident: John Kirby (Sullivan’s spokesperson) has been brandishing highly exaggerated Russian losses in Bakhmut/Artyomovsk. At the same time that he suggests that though Russia somehow may seem to be ‘winning’, in reality it has been defeated. Blinken followed up on this theme the following day with ‘Russia has failed in its objective to erase Ukraine’, and therefore, has ‘lost’ – having failed to achieve its objectives.
The consequence was predictable: with a U.S. ‘exit’ apparently looming, some major provocation (i.e. the drone attack on the Kremlin) was to be expected. ‘Someone’ clearly is desperate to trigger a Russian overreaction that would, in turn, force the West to move to full war against Russia.
At time of writing, the details of who might be responsible for the Kremlin attack are unknown. There is however deep, passionate anger in Russia. The Kremlin must acknowledge this public sentiment. And there will be a response; but at the same time Moscow will not want to play into the provocateurs’ agenda. (9 May marks the Russian victory in the war against Nazi Germany. They will not want the day disrupted).
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