Vladimir Putin has often complained of the West waging a “proxy” war in Ukraine by supplying Kyiv with training and technology to fight back against Russian troops.
Yet even as Russia's leader convinces himself that he is the injured party, the Kremlin has been waging its own shadow fight against Europe and its allies.
Cyber attacks on Nato nations and their allies that originating in Russia have been ramping up in recent months, forcing the public and private sectors alike to beef up their defences.
“Europe was dragged into a high-intensity hybrid cyber-war at a turning point in the conflict,” says Pierre-Yves Jolivet, a senior cyber security executive at French defence giant Thales, who noted a significant increase in attacks at the end of last year.
Last summer there were 85 cyber conflict-related incidents in EU countries, according to Thales. Over the same time period its experts saw 86 cyber incidents take place in Ukraine itself.
Nicolas Quintin, a cyber security researcher with Thales, says: “Starting in May 2022, we've seen attacks in all of Europe.
“As soon as a country is, for instance, providing Ukraine with weapons or as soon as the country is blaming Russia’s actions, they react immediately in a very organised manner.
“The Russians’ goal was to send a message: ‘You can support Ukraine, you can blame Russia for the invasion, but it won't be without consequences’.”
The Baltic states on Nato’s northern flank have become the front line of Russia’s new digital offensive.
Margus Noormaa, director general of Estonia’s national cyber security agency, has said his country has “practically been in a cyber war” with Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. Attacks against Estonia’s digital infrastructure are “taking place almost every day or week”.
Märt Hiietamm, head of the agency’s analysis and prevention department, says attacks have become more sophisticated over time.
“This is from the people with the more professional stuff,” Hiietamm says, describing the split between Russia’s military hacking units and what he calls “the students for hire”. (These are young people, typically technically skilled civilians, who want to make easy money infiltrating Western companies for espionage purposes.)
Denmark’s Centre for Cyber Security (CFCS) raised the country’s cyber threat level from medium to high in mid-March, warning that “pro-Russian groups” have been stepping up cyber attacks “in Denmark and the West”.
“In the context of continued increased tensions between Russia and the West, pro-Russian cyber activists carry out numerous attacks against varying targets that they select from a broad selection of NATO members,” said CFCS in a statement.
Industry sources say there has been a marked increase in the number of stealthy Russian attempts to infiltrate computer networks for espionage purposes as well.
In Britain, major institutions have suffered several high-profile cyber attacks in recent months. Royal Mail’s international deliveries were notably brought to a halt by Lockbit, a Russia-linked ransomware gang.
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