Pentagon Officials Are Realizing US Munitions Stockpiles Aren’t Nearly Big Enough To Take On China

Pentagon Officials Are Realizing US Munitions Stockpiles Aren’t Nearly Big Enough To Take On China

Micaela Burrow

• In a whirlwind of hearings in March, Pentagon leaders revealed how much the Ukraine war has cut into American munitions stockpiles.
• Massive rates of ammunition consumption from the war have caused the Pentagon to reevaluate needs for a potential China contingency.
• “One of the big lessons coming out of Ukraine is the incredible consumption of conventional munitions and the conduct of what is really a limited regional war. So, a great power war, if that were to ever happen — God forbid it does — the consumption rates would be incredible,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said.

As reports of a munitions shortage increased following rapid withdrawals from American arsenals to supply the war in Ukraine, Defense leaders in testimony before Congress revealed deep concern about the U.S.’ ability to sustain a contest with China.

The U.S. has devoted millions of rounds of munitions to Ukraine since Russia invaded more than a year ago, draining U.S. stockpiles and setting off alarm bells in Congress and the White House on the state of America’s arsenal in light of higher-than-expected consumption rates in Ukraine. Senior leaders in the Department of Defense and military service branches, in statements to justify the Pentagon’s budget request for the coming year, warned that the U.S. has massive hurdles to overcome to rebuild to the level necessary to counter China, and remains vulnerable in the meantime.

“I’m concerned. I know the secretary is … we’ve got a ways to go to make sure our stockpiles are prepared for the real contingencies,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told the House Armed Services Committee on March 29. (RELATED: US Lays Claim To Ammo Seized From Iran, Alleges ‘Sophisticated’ Iranian Smuggling Operation)

DOD has directed the military to review war plans and reassess munitions expenditure estimates to inform future budget requests, Milley said.

For example, the number of Javelin anti-armor missiles the U.S. donated to Ukraine during the first six months of the war equals seven years of production, according to research from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. At normal manufacturing rates, it would take up to eight years to replenish U.S. arsenals of precision 155 mm rounds, Javelins and HIMARS ammunition as of January.

The Pentagon pledged never to allow American stockpiles to fall below critical levels, but officials worried as early as August that stockpiles had fallen below what they considered comfortable levels in a conflict scenario. 

“One of the big lessons coming out of Ukraine is the incredible consumption of conventional munitions and the conduct of what is really a limited regional war,” Milley tolda Senate committee on March. 28. “So, a great power war, if that were to ever happen — God forbid it does — the consumption rates would be incredible.”

In a conflict with China, munitions consumption would be enormous, CSIS found in a 2022 wargame simulating a U.S. military response to China’s invasion of Taiwan in 2026. The U.S. would expend all of its long-range, precision-guided munitions within a week, and the rest would last just a few weeks longer.

“These gaps undermine deterrence — the linchpin of the United States’ defense strategy — because they reveal to all that the United States cannot endure a lengthy war,” Seth Jones, senior vice president at CSIS, wrote. Adversaries could see the U.S. as constrained by its paltry munitions supply and feel emboldened to take actions that are contrary to U.S. interests without fearing a response.

Meanwhile, Beijing is piling up munitions and other advanced equipment at a rate up to six times faster than the U.S. and would have easy access to its industrial base during a Taiwan contingency, Jones wrote. In contrast, the U.S. would have to depend on a supply chain that can transport troops, weapons and supplies 7,000 miles across the Pacific ocean.

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